New York Poll: Zeldin Momentum Stalls as Hochul Rallies Support

The first post-debate Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill survey of New York voters finds Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul with an eight-point lead over Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin, 52% to 44%. Three percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Hochul’s lead extends to nine points, 54% to 45%. Since the pre-debate Emerson/Pix11/The Hill poll, Hochul has gained two percentage points and Zeldin has stayed at 44% support. 

Eighty-seven percent of voters have heard, seen, or read a lot (49%) or a little (38%) about last week’s New York gubernatorial debate. Among these voters, a plurality (39%) say the debate made no difference on their opinion of Governor Hochul, while 35% say it worsened their opinion of the Governor, and 26% say it improved their opinion of her. A plurality of voters (41%) say the debate improved their opinion of Lee Zeldin, while 34% say it made no difference and 25% say it worsened their opinion of Zeldin. 

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, noted: “Hochul leads 70% to 26% among voters who said the debate makes no difference on their vote.”

Kimball continued, “Overall, male voters in New York are evenly split: 48% support Zeldin and 48% Hochul. Women voters are Hochul’s strong suit, she leads Zeldin by 16 points, 56% to 40%.”

In the US Senate Election, Democrat Chuck Schumer leads Republican Joe Pinion 55% to 36%. Six percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Schumer leads 57% to 39%. 

President Joe Biden holds a split approval in New York: 46% approve of the job he is doing and 45% disapprove. The economy is the top issue for 34% of voters, followed by “threats to democracy” (14%), crime (13%), abortion access (11%), and healthcare (9%). 

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill New York poll was conducted October 28-31, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, and education, based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel.