A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of North Carolina voters finds 47% support former President Donald Trump on a 2024 ballot test, while 44% support President Joe Biden. Ten percent are undecided. With third-party candidates added to the ballot test, Trump leads 46% to 37%, while 5% support Robert Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively. Eleven percent are undecided.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said, “A majority of voters under 30 break for President Biden over Trump, 53% to 35%, along with a plurality of voters in their 30s, 47% to 40%. Voters in their 40s are evenly split: 45% support each candidate. Voters over 50 support Trump over Biden, 52% to 40%. In addition, independent voters in North Carolina break for Trump over Biden, 43% to 40%.”
Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris 50% to 41% in a hypothetical match-up, and California Governor Gavin Newsom 49% to 34%.
Voters were asked if President Biden’s age raises doubts in their mind about voting for Biden, or if it is not a serious consideration for them: 58% say it raises doubts, 42% say it is not a serious consideration. Voters were also asked if former President Donald Trump’s criminal indictments raise serious doubts or if it is not a concern: 52% say it raises doubts, 49% say it is not a serious consideration for them.
The economy is the top issue for 36% of voters, followed by healthcare (14%), education (12%), immigration (10%), housing affordability (8%), crime (7%), threats to democracy (6%), and abortion access (5%).
A plurality of voters (47%) think things in North Carolina are on the wrong track, while 32% think things are headed in the right direction. President Biden holds a 38% job approval in North Carolina, and 54% disapproval. Governor Roy Cooperholds a 44% job approval, while 37% disapprove of the job he is doing in office.
In the gubernatorial Republican Primary, 30% support Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, while 7% support Bill Graham, and 7% support Dale Folwell. A majority of voters (57%) are undecided.
In the Democratic Primary, a similar majority are undecided (53%), while 34% support Josh Stein, 5% Marcus Williams, 4% Chrelle Booker, 3% Gary Foxx, and 2% Michael Morgan.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill North Carolina survey was conducted February 14-16, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (NC S.O.S.).
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and a consumer list of emails (both provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found under “Full Results.”
