A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey in Georgia finds 48% of voters support former president Donald Trump in 2024, while 42% support President Joe Biden. Eleven percent are undecided. Since last month’s Georgia tracking survey, Trump’s support has held at 48% while Biden’s support has increased one point.
Trump’s lead is more substantial against hypothetical candidates Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom: Trump leads Harris 51% to 41%, with 8% undecided, and Newsom 51% to 32%, with 17% undecided.
“Biden leads among Black voters, 65% to 20%, with 16% undecided, whereas Trump leads among white voters, 63% to 30%, with 7% undecided,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted.
- Independent voter break for President Biden, 44% to 39%, with 18% undecided.
- Voters under 30 are split: 42% support Trump, 41% support Biden, and 17% are undecided.
Regarding President Biden’s age, 60% of Georgia voters note Biden’s age raises serious doubts in voting for him in 2024, while 40% say this is not a serious consideration for them. Regarding Trump’s criminal indictments, 54% say this raises doubts in the mind about voting for Trump, while 46% find it not to be a serious consideration.
- Male voters are more concerned about Biden’s age than women, 63% to 57%, whereas women are more concerned about Trump’s criminal convictions, 57% to 49%.
- Within the top candidates’ own parties, Trump’s convictions raise concern for 27% of Republicans, whereas Biden’s age raises concern for 44% of Democrats.
The economy is the top issue for 32% of voters, followed by healthcare (13%), crime (13%), housing affordability (9%), immigration (9%), education (9%), abortion access (7%), and threats to democracy (5%).
Forty-percent of voters think things in Georgia are headed in the right direction, while 35% think things are on the wrong track. President Biden holds a 39% job approval among Georgia voters, while 50% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Governor Brian Kemp holds a 52% job approval, while 29% disapprove of the job he is doing; 19% are neutral.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Georgia survey was conducted February 14-16, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (GA S.O.S.).
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and a consumer list of emails (both provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found under “Full Results.”
