The final Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics/The Hill California poll finds Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff maintaining a lead in the primary for U.S. Senate with 28%, followed by Republican former major league baseball player Steve Garvey with 20%, Democratic Rep. Katie Porter with 17%, and Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee with 8%. Seventeen percent remain undecided ahead of Tuesday’s election.
When accounting for which candidate undecided voters lean toward, Schiff’s support increases to 32%, Garvey to 22%, Porter to 20%, and Lee to 11%
“Both Garvey and Porter are within the poll’s margin of error for second place in a race where a top-two finish would place them on the ballot in November,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Among those who have already voted, 47% supported Schiff, 19% Porter, 18% Garvey, and 10% Lee. Among those who have yet to vote but are likely to do so, 30% support Schiff, 23% Garvey, and 20% Porter.”
- Schiff has secured the plurality of the Democratic vote, with 47%, while Garvey has the majority of the Republican vote, with 54%.
- Independents split: 27% support Schiff, 24% support Garvey, and 20% support Porter.”
- A quarter (25%) of voters under 30 support Katie Porter, while 21% support Lee, and 20% Schiff.
- Schiff’s support is highest among voters over 70: 49% support Schiff, while 30% support Garvey.
President Biden holds a 50% job approval among likely California primary voters, 38% disapprove of the job he is doing. Similarly, Governor Newsom holds a 49% job approval, while 39% disapprove of the job he is doing as Governor.
In the Democratic Primary, 80% of voters plan to vote for Biden, 6% Dean Philliips, while 14% are undecided. In the Republican Primary, 75% support former President Trump, 17% Nikki Haley, and 9% are undecided.
In a potential 2024 matchup, Biden leads Trump 57% to 35%, while 8% are undecided.
When independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein are added to the presidential ballot, Biden’s support drops to 51%, Trump to 31%, while 7% support Kennedy Jr., 2% support West, and 1% Stein.
A majority of voters (69%) plan to vote “yes” on Prop 1, a ballot measure that authorizes $6.38 billion in bonds to build mental health treatment facilities for those with mental health and substance use challenges; 31% plan to vote “no.”
The economy is the top issue for 25% of voters, followed by housing affordability (15%), immigration (12%), healthcare (10%), crime (9%), threats to democracy (8%), and education (7%).
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics/The Hill California poll was conducted February 24-27, 2024. The sample consisted of 1,000 likely voters and those who already voted, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, party, race, and education based on US Census parameters, and California voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (CA SOS). Data was collected by contacting an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer, a list of emails, cell phones via MMS-to-web, and landlines provided by Aristotle.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know that with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found under “Full Results.”
