Trump Voters Motivated by an Issue; Biden Voters Motivated by Disdain for Trump
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill Georgia poll finds 46% of voters support former President Donald Trump and 42% support President Joe Biden in a likely 2024 presidential matchup. Twelve percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Trump’s support increases to 52% and Biden to 48%.
“Biden voters are twice as likely to be motivated by their dislike for Trump (30%) compared to Trump voters’ motivation by their dislike for Biden (15%),” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “A plurality of Trump voters (32%) are breaking for him due to their concern about an issue, with the economy (29%) and immigration (21%) being the top priorities for these voters.”
When independent candidates are added to the ballot, 44% of voters support Trump, 37% Biden, 5% Robert Kennedy Jr., 2% Cornel West, and 1% Jill Stein.
“Robert Kennedy Jr. draws support from 8% of voters under 40, 8% of independents, 6% of Democrats, and 3% of Republicans when third parties are on the ballot,” Kimball noted.
The economy is the most important issue facing Georgia at 32%, followed by immigration (14%), healthcare (12%), crime (11%), housing affordability (8%), threats to democracy (8%), education (7%), and abortion access (6%).
Voters were asked if they think Biden or Trump would do a better job on immigration and border security, abortion access, and the Israel-Hamas war.
- Immigration and border security: 54% Trump, 46% Biden
- Israel-Hamas war: 54% Trump, 46% Biden
- Abortion access: 56% Biden, 44% Trump
Joe Biden holds a 37% approval rating among Georgia voters, while 53% disapprove of his performance in the Oval Office. Governor Brian Kemp holds a 48% approval rating, while 30% disapprove of the job he is doing as Governor.
Thirty-seven percent of voters think Georgia is heading in the right direction, while 39% say the state is on the wrong track.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Georgia survey was conducted March 5-7, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. Note on graphics: figures may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.
Data was collected by contacting a voter list of cell phones via MMS-to-web, Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and a consumer list of emails (both provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results.
