Casey 45%, McCormick 41%
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll in Pennsylvania finds 47% of voters support former president Donald Trump and 43% support President Joe Biden for president in 2024. Ten percent of voters are undecided. When voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Trump’s overall support increases to 52%, and Biden to 48%.
“There is a distinction in motivation between Biden and Trump voters,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Trump voters support the former president because they care about an issue (28%), like Trump (27%), or dislike Biden (21%), whereas a plurality of Biden voters (33%) support the president because they dislike Trump and 24% support Biden because they like him as a candidate.”
- Among Trump voters who support him because they “care about an issue,” 45% say the top issue facing Pennsylvania is the economy, and 24% immigration.
With third-party candidates included on the ballot, 44% support Trump, 40% Biden, 5% Robert Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively. Eight percent are undecided.
The economy is the top issue for 36% of voters, followed by crime (12%), immigration (11%), threats to democracy (11%), healthcare (9%), education (7%), housing affordability (6%), and abortion access (4%).
In a potential U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick, 45% support Casey, and 41% McCormick. Fourteen percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Casey’s overall support increases to 52%, and McCormick to 48%.
- Independent voters break for Casey 42% to 29%, with 29% undecided. With the undecided push, they break for Casey overall over McCormick 57% to 43%.
- About nine percent of Trump voters plan to split their ticket and vote for Casey, compared to 3% of Biden voters who would split their ticket and vote for McCormick.
President Biden holds a 38% job approval among Pennsylvania voters and a 55% job disapproval. Seven percent are neutral. Governor Josh Shapiro holds a 47% job approval and 31% disapproval. Twenty-two percent are neutral.
Pennsylvania voters were asked which presidential candidate they think would do a better job on immigration and border security, abortion access, and the Israel-Hamas war.
- Immigration/border security: 54% Trump, 46% Biden
- Abortion access: 57% Biden, 43% Trump
- Israel-Hamas war: 52% Trump, 48% Biden
Voters were asked if Biden’s age or Trump’s criminal indictments raise doubts in their minds about voting for each candidate in 2024. Biden’s age raises doubts for 58%, while Trump’s indictments raise doubts for 55%. Independents are equally concerned: 61% say Biden’s age and Trump’s indictments raise doubts for voting for each candidate.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Pennsylvania survey was conducted March 10-13, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (PA S.O.S.).
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web, landlines via Interactive Voice Response, and consumer list of emails provided by Aristotle along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found under “Full Results.”
