Democratic primary voters align more with Latimer on Israel-Hamas war, 45% to 29%
A new Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey of the New York 16th Congressional District Democratic Primary finds 48% of voters support Westchester County Executive George Latimer, while 31% support incumbent Representative Jamaal Bowman. Twenty-one percent are undecided.
“Voters under 40 break for Bowman: 44% to 35%, while voters over 40 break for Latimer,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Democratic primary voters ages 40-59 break for Latimer 53% to 31%, while voters in their 60s break for Latimer 46% to 29%, and voters over 70 break for Latimer 53% to 22%.”
- Black voters break for Bowman, 48% to 34%, and white voters for Latimer, 62% to 20%. Hispanic voters are split evenly, with 36% supporting Bowman and Latimer respectively.
Fifty-one percent have a favorable view of the incumbent congressman, while 43% have an unfavorable view of him. Six percent are not familiar with Bowman. Sixty-five percent of voters have a favorable view of Latimer, while 23% have an unfavorable view. Twelve percent are undecided.
President Joe Biden holds a 69% job approval among Democratic primary voters, while 23% disapprove of the job he is doing. Governor Kathy Hochul has a 55% job approval, while 26% disapprove of the job she is doing in office.
The economy (22%) and housing affordability (21%) are the top issues for Democratic primary voters in the district, followed by threats to democracy (14%), healthcare (13%), crime (12%), and immigration (6%).
Forty-five percent of voters align more with George Latimer on the war between Israel and Hamas, 29% align more with Bowman, and 26% are unsure.
- Voters under 40 align more with Bowman than Latimer on the war, 54% to 32%, while voters 40-59 align with Latimer 43% to 28%, in their 60s, 52% to 17%, and over 70 49% to 22%.
A plurality of Democratic primary voters (43%) are less inclined to support a member of Congress who opposes a ceasefire in Gaza, while 37% are more inclined to support a candidate who opposes a ceasefire. Twenty percent say it has no impact on their support.
- Male voters are more inclined to support a candidate that opposes a ceasefire in Gaza, 41% to 36%. Female voters are less inclined to support a candidate that opposes a ceasefire, 47% to 35%.
Half (50%) of Democratic primary voters think the U.S. government is spending too much on aid to Israel in the war with Hamas, a third (33%) think the U.S. is spending the right amount, and 17% think the U.S. is spending too little. Regarding humanitarian relief to Palestinians in Gaza, 46% think the U.S. is spending too little, 34% the right amount, and 21% too much.
A majority of voters (55%) think there is about the same amount of crime in their area as there was a year ago, while 28% think there is more crime, and 17% find there is less crime.
Sixty-four percent of Democratic primary voters approve of President Biden’s executive order that prevents migrants from seeking asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border once the average number of daily encounters hits 2,500 between ports of entry, while 23% disapprove, and 13% are unsure.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey of the New York 16th Congressional District Democratic primary was conducted June 6-8, 2024. The sample of likely Democratic primary voters, n=425, has a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.7 percentage points.
The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, and age based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, voter registration data provided by New York Secretary of State, and voter data provided by Aristotle, Inc.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR), phone lists provided by Aristotle. The survey was offered in English.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Nexstar Media.
