Tim Kaine 49%, Hung Cao 39%
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Virginia voters finds 45% support former President Donald Trump and 43% support President Biden in a 2024 election. Eleven percent are undecided. When undecided voters are pushed to choose the candidate they lean toward, Trump and Biden’s overall support increases to 50% respectively.
“In a state Biden won by 10 points in 2020, the president is now essentially tied with Trump,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Independent voters break for Trump, 46% to 38%, a group that broke for Biden in 2020 by double digits.”
“Trump also leads Biden among male voters by 12 points, expanding his lead among this group since 2020, while Biden leads among women by six points, a lesser margin than 2020.”
In a matchup between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, 47% support Trump, 45% Harris, and 9% are undecided.
With third-party candidates on the ballot, Trump’s lead increases to five points, 43% to 38%, while 8% support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2% Cornel West, and 2% Jill Stein; 8% are undecided.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine leads his Republican challenger Hung Cao by 10 points, 49% to 39%.
“Eight percent of those voting for Kaine say they plan to vote for Trump, compared to 3% of Cao voters supporting Biden,” Kimball noted. “Kaine leads his opponent by 27 points among voters in their 30s, while Biden leads Trump by 7 points among these same voters.”
A majority of Virginia voters (71%) think the United States is on the wrong track, while 29% think the country is headed in the right direction. However, 59% of voters think the state is headed in the right direction, 41% on the wrong track.
President Biden holds a 37% job approval among Virginia voters; 53% disapprove of the job he is doing. Governor Glenn Youngkin holds a 46% approval rating, 38% disapprove of the job he is doing.
The economy is the top issue among Virginia voters at 40%, followed by housing affordability (12%), immigration (9%), threats to democracy (9%), education (7%), abortion access (6%), healthcare (6%), and crime (6%).
Voters were asked if they would like to see abortion laws in Virginia made more strict, less strict, or remain as they are: 44% would like to see abortion laws be less strict, 35% remain as they are, and 21% more strict.
A plurality of Republicans (43%) would like to see abortion laws made more strict, while 68% of Democrats think they should be made less strict, and independents think they should either remain as they are (42%) or be less strict (39%).
Methodology
The sample of Virginia voters consists of n=1,000 registered voters. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and voter registration and turnout data. The credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, for the sample is +/- 3% in 19 of 20 cases in each state.
The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. Data was collected between July 14-15, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
