NY17: Michael Lawler (R) 45%, Mondaire Jones (D) 44%
NY18: Pat Ryan (D) 48%, Alison Esposito (R) 43%
New Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill surveys of New York’s 17th and 18th congressional districts find close elections for the two US House seats. In the 17th district, 45% support incumbent Republican Congressman Michael Lawler, while 44% support former congressman Mondaire Jones. Three percent support Working Families Party Anthony Frascone, and 7% are undecided.
“Mondaire Jones is leading among young voters under 40, 51% to 40%, and those in their 40s, 45% to 41%, but trails among voters over 50, 49% to 40%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “The Working Families Party candidate also pulls 6% among voters under 40.”
Lawler has a 47% favorable rating in the district, while 40% have an unfavorable view of him. Thirteen percent are not familiar with him. Jones has a 40% favorable rating, while 40% have an unfavorable view of him. Twenty percent are not familiar with Jones.
In the 18th district, 48% plan to support incumbent Democratic Representative Pat Ryan, while 43% support Republican Alison Esposito, and 10% are undecided.
“There is a sharp gender divide in the 18th district: men break for Esposito 52% to 40%, while women break for Ryan, 54% to 34%,” Kimball added.
A majority of voters (52%) have a favorable view of Ryan, while 37% have an unfavorable view of him and 11% are not familiar with the congressman. Forty-seven percent have a favorable view of Esposito, while 30% have an unfavorable view of her.
The presidential election is neck-and-neck in both NY17 and 18. In the 17th district, 49% support Kamala Harris, and 49% support Donald Trump for president. In the 18th district, 48% support Donald Trump, while 47% support Harris.
The top issue for NY17 voters is the economy (32%), followed by immigration (20%), housing affordability (13%), crime (11%), and threats to democracy (10%). The top issue for NY18 voters is the economy (39%), housing affordability (16%), immigration (14%), threats to democracy (11%), and crime (6%).
Voters were asked if the number of migrants seeking sanctuary in the United States is a crisis, a problem but not a crisis, or not a problem at all. A majority of voters in both districts think it is a crisis: 56% in NY17 and 53% in NY18. Thirty-four percent in NY17 and 35% in NY18 think it is a problem but not a crisis, while 10% in NY17 and 13% in NY18 think it is not a problem at all.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill 17th district and 18th district surveys were conducted October 1-3, 2024. The sample of NY 17th district likely voters is n=630. The sample of NY 18th district likely voters is n=630. The polls have a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and party affiliation based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling per state is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text (phone list provided by Aristotle) and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. The surveys were funded by Nexstar Media.
