Voters split on ballot initiatives on abortion, marijuana
A new Emerson College Polling/KELO-TV/The Hill poll of South Dakota voters finds 62% support former president Donald Trump in 2024, while 35% support Vice President Kamala Harris. Voters were asked regardless of whom they support, who they expect to be president in 2025. Fifty-nine percent expect Trump to be president, and 39% expect Harris to be president.
“Despite Trump holding a 27-point lead over Harris in South Dakota, fewer voters, about a 20-point margin, expect Trump to win the presidency, suggesting some doubt among his supporters about the overall election outcome,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
President Joe Biden holds a 28% job approval among South Dakota voters, while 64% disapprove of his performance in the Oval Office. Governor Kristi Noem has a 52% job approval rating, while 40% disapprove of the job she is doing as governor.
In the US House election, 64% support incumbent Republican Dusty Johnson, while 28% support Democrat Sheryl Johnson.
The top issue for South Dakota voters is the economy at 42%, followed by abortion access (11%), housing affordability (8%), immigration (8%), healthcare (8%), education (8%), and threats to democracy (7%).
South Dakota has several issues on the ballot, including but not limited to abortion, establishing a top-two primary system, and legalized marijuana.
On South Dakota Constitutional Amendment G, an initiated amendment establishing a right to abortion in the state constitution in the first trimester, 45% plan to vote to adopt the amendment, white 48% plan to vote against it. Seven percent are undecided.
“Voters who support the abortion ballot initiative break for Harris over Trump, 65% to 31%, while voters who oppose the measure break for Trump, 90% to 7%,” Kimball noted.
On South Dakota Initiated Measure 29, an initiated measure legalizing the recreational use, possession, and distribution of marijuana, 45% plan to vote yes, to adopt the measure, and 50% plan to vote no. Five percent are undecided.
“The marijuana ballot initiative has the most support among voters under 30, at 68%, and most opposition among voters over 70, at 64%,” Kimball added.
On Constitutional Amendment H, an amendment to the South Dakota Constitution establishing top-two primary elections, 40% plan to vote to adopt the amendment to require one primary election wherein all candidates run against each other in their respective races, and the two candidates receiving the most votes advance to the general election. Forty-eight percent would vote no to leave the constitution as is, and 12% are undecided.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling South Dakota survey was conducted October 19-22, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=825, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via landlines via IVR, MMS-to-web text (phone list provided by Aristotle) and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Nexstar Media.
