Slotkin (D) 48%, Rogers (R) 46%
A new Emerson College Polling/RealClearWorld survey of Michigan voters finds 49% support former President Donald Trump, and 48% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in 2024. Two percent are undecided and 1% plan on voting for a third party.
“With one week until Election Day, the race remains a toss-up,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “The survey finds the important voting block of Michigan union household voters breaking for Harris, 55% to 41%, while non-union household members break for Trump, 52% to 46%.”
Voters were asked, regardless of who they support for president, who they expect to win. Half of voters (50%) expect Kamala Harris, while 49% expect Trump to win.
In the US Senate Election, 48% support Democrat Elissa Slotkin, while 46% support Republican Mike Rogers. Six percent are undecided.
“While independent voters slightly break for Trump on the presidential ballot 47% to 45%, in the U.S. Senate race they support Slotkin 49% to 40%,” Kimball noted.
The top issue for Michigan votes is the economy at 48%, followed by immigration (9%), healthcare (9%), threats to democracy (8%), and abortion access (8%),
- Voters who say the economy is their top issue break for Trump 63% to 33% and immigration 96% to 4%, while voters who find healthcare to be the top issue support Harris 72% to 23%, and threats to democracy 90% to 10%.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer holds a 51% job approval rating, while 42% disapprove of the job he is doing. President Joe Biden holds a 39% job approval, while 53% disapprove of the job he is doing as president.
Forty-nine percent hold a favorable view of Vice President Harris, while 51% have an unfavorable view of Harris. Half (50%) have a favorable view of Trump, while 50% have an unfavorable view of the former president.
METHODOLOGY
The Emerson College Polling Michigan survey was conducted October 25-27, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected via IVR (phone list provided by Aristotle) and an online panel of voters provided by CINT.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by RealClear World.
