NY US Congress District 17: Lawler (R) 49%, Jones (D) 44%
NY US Congress District 18: Ryan (D) 51%, Esposito (R) 42%
The final Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey of New York’s 17th Congressional District finds 49% of voters support incumbent Republican Rep. Michael Lawler for Congress, while 44% support Democrat Mondaire Jones. Seven percent remain undecided ahead of Election Day. Since earlier this month, Lawler’s support increased by four points, from 45% to 49%, while Jones’ support held at 44%.
In the 18th district, 51% support incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan, while 42% support Republican Alison Esposito. Seven percent are undecided. Since earlier this month, Ryan’s support increased by three points, from 48% to 51%, while Esposito’s support decreased by a point.
“There is a stark gender divide in the 17th district, with men breaking for Lawler by 27 points, and women breaking by 16 for Jones, while men are more divided in the 18th district: 47% support Esposito and 46% support Ryan. Women break for Ryan by 20 points,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
A majority of voters (52%) have a favorable view of Lawler, while 44% have a favorable view of Jones. Similarly, 52% have a favorable view of incumbent Ryan, while 41% have a favorable opinion of Esposito.
Presidential Election
In the 17th district, 50% support Vice President Kamala Harris and 47% support former president Donald Trump, while 1% support a third party option and 2% are undecided. Harris gained a point, while Trump lost two points since the early October poll.
In the 18th district, 49% support Donald Trump for president, 48% support Kamala Harris, while 2% support someone else and 2% are undecided. Harris and Trump both gained a point since the early October poll.
Top Issues
The top issue for voters in the 17th district is the economy, at 30%, followed by immigration (20%), housing affordability (15%), crime (11%), and threats to democracy (10%).
The top issue for voters in the 18th district is also the economy, at 32%, followed by immigration (19%), housing affordability (14%), threats to democracy (11%), and crime (8%).
Voters were asked if they are now better off financially than a year ago, about the same, or worse off.
- Half (50%) of voters in the 17th district say they are worse off financially today than a year ago, while 32% say they are doing about the same, and 18% are better off.
- 48% in the 18th district are worse off, 35% about the same, and 18% better off.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill New York 17th and 18th district survey were conducted October 24-26, 2024. The sample of NY 17th district likely voters is n=475, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 4.4 percentage points, and the sample of NY 18th district likely voters is n=450, with a credibility interval of +/- 4.6 percentage points.
The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and party affiliation based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling per state is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text (phone list provided by Aristotle) and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. The surveys were funded by Nexstar Media.
