Majority of Virginians Think State on Right Track, Though 51% Report Their Economic Situation Worsened Over Last Four Years
The first Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election finds 42% of voters support Democratic former Representative Abigail Spanberger and 41% support Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. Four percent support someone else, and 13% are undecided.
“Ten months before the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election, the race is tight overall but with clear demographic differences standing out,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Support for Earle-Sears is found among male voters, who break for the Lieutenant Governor 52% to 37%, and white voters, who break for her 50% to 35%. Spanberger leads among women, 47% to 31%, and both older and young voters: those over 70, who break for Spanberger 46% to 43%, and those under 30, who break for her 43% to 33%.”
A majority of voters (51%) feel their economic situation is worse than it was four years ago, while 27% feel their situation is better, and 22% feel it is no different.
“Among those who feel their economic situation is worse than four years ago, 56% think the state is headed in the right direction and 56% have a favorable view of the Governor. Additionally, 66% of those who feel they are worse off than four years ago have an unfavorable view of President Biden, suggesting they may be blaming the president rather than Governor Youngkin for their current economic situation,” Kimball said.
Term-limited Governor Glenn Youngkin holds a 48% favorable rating, while 35% have an unfavorable view of the Governor. Spanberger has a 38% favorable rating, and 21% unfavorable. Twenty-four percent are neutral and 17% are not familiar with the candidate. Earle-Sears has a 33% favorable rating, and 22% unfavorable. Twenty-seven percent are neutral, and 18% are not familiar with the Lieutenant Governor.
Virginia voters are split on their view of President-elect Donald Trump: 47% have a favorable view of Trump and 47% have an unfavorable view of him. President Joe Biden holds a 43% favorable rating among Virginia voters, while 50% have an unfavorable view of the President.
Fifty-nine percent of voters think Virginia is headed in the right direction, while 41% think the state is on the wrong track.
The top issue for Virginia voters is the economy (38%) followed by housing affordability (14%), healthcare (10%), education (8%), threats to democracy (8%), crime (7%), immigration (7%), and abortion access (5%).
A plurality of voters (41%) feel their community’s safety has remained unchanged over the past four years, while 38% feel it has decreased, and 21% report an improvement.
Following a significant snowstorm that impacted parts of Virginia, 56% agree it is possible that the heavy snowstorms could be caused by climate change, while 44% disagree.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Virginia survey was conducted January 6-8, 2025. The sample of Virginia registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text, landlines via interactive voice response and (phone list provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College/Nexstar Media.
