55% of Voters Expect World War Within the Next Four Years
A new Emerson College Polling national survey finds President Trump’s job approval unchanged since the February national poll, at 48% while his disapproval increased a point to 43%. Regarding the President’s handling of the war between Russia and Ukraine, 44% of voters disapprove, 41% approve, and 15% are neutral.
“Perception of Trump’s handling of the Russia-Ukraine war reveals a stark partisan divide: 73% of Republicans approve of the President’s handling of the war, while 76% of Democrats disapprove,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Independents are more divided, with 46% disapproving and 35% approving.”
Forty-one percent of voters rate Trump’s handling of foreign policy as poor, while 15% say it’s fair, 18% good, and 26% excellent. Seventy-seven percent of Republicans rate his handling as excellent or good, while 83% of Democrats and 64% of independents rate it as fair/poor.
Forty-eight percent think the Trump administration is putting “America first,” while 41% think it is not, and 10% are unsure.
Following the Oval Office meeting between Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 46% of voters think neither the United States nor Ukraine walked away from the meeting as a winner, while 35% think the United States walked away as a winner and 15% Ukraine; 4% think both countries were equally successful.
When asked about the future of Ukraine, 55% think it is most likely that Ukraine will give up some land to Russia but remain an independent country, 29% think it will be a completely independent country within its original borders, and 17% think Ukraine will become part of Russia.
A plurality of voters (48%) oppose the US exiting the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), while 28% support withdrawing. A quarter (25%) are neutral or have no opinion.
- 66% of Democrats and 50% of independents oppose the US withdrawing from NATO, while 47% of Republicans support a US withdrawal.
Voters were asked how likely they think it is that a world war breaks out in the next four years. Fifty-five percent think it is very likely or somewhat likely, while 45% think it is not very likely or not at all likely.
Regarding aid to Ukraine, 45% think the United States has given too much aid to Ukraine, 33% think the US has given the right amount of aid to Ukraine, and 22% think the US has given too little aid to the country in its war with Russia.
Favorable ratings were measured among several prominent heads of nations: the United States, Ukraine, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France. Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have the highest favorabilities, at 46% and 45% respectively, while Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping hold 12% and 8% favorable ratings respectively. French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have lower name recognitions, at 35% and 34% favorable respectively.
“Sixty-six percent of Democrats, 42% of independents, and 28% of Republicans view Ukrainian president Zelenskyy favorably,” Kimball noted.
Department of Government Efficiency head Elon Musk’s job approval remains unchanged at 41% since last month’s survey. Forty-six percent disapprove of the job Musk is doing, and 13% are neutral.
When asked what the top issue facing the nation is, the economy continues to be the top concern for voters at 41%, followed by threats to democracy (18%), immigration (13%), and healthcare (8%).
Looking ahead to the 2026 Midterm Elections, Democrats have a three-point edge on the generic congressional ballot. In the final Emerson national poll before the 2024 general election, Democrats had a one-point edge over the Republican candidates.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted March 2-3, 2025. The sample of US registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting a voter list of opt-in emails provided by Commonwealth Opinions and an online panel of voters provided by Rep Data. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College.
