Voters Split on Texas Redistricting and Call for Legislators’ Arrests
The Emerson College Polling survey of the 2026 Republican U.S. Senate primary in Texas shows a neck-and-neck race between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, with Cornyn at 30%, Paxton at 29%, and 37% of voters still undecided.
“Seven months ahead of the Republican Primary, the contest between the four-term incumbent and the Attorney General is a toss-up, with 37% of voters still undecided,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Among these undecided voters, President Trump’s job approval stands at 73%, suggesting his endorsement could be pivotal in such a close race.”
In the Democratic primary, 2024 Democratic nominee for Senate Colin Allred leads among announced candidates with 58%, and 34% undecided.
Looking ahead to the November 2026 general election, Senator Cornyn leads Democrat Allred 45% to 38%, with 17% undecided. Ken Paxton leads Allred by a smaller margin, 46% to 41%, with 14% undecided.
Texas Redistricting
Regarding redistricting efforts, 35% of voters say they are following efforts very closely, 43% somewhat closely, 17% not too closely, and 5% not at all closely.
Texas voters are split on the proposal to redraw Texas’ congressional map ahead of the 2026 Midterm Elections: 36% support, 38% oppose, and 26% are unsure.
Voters were asked if they agree or disagree that Republicans in Texas are “entitled to five more congressional seats,” referring to President Trump’s statement in July. Forty percent of voters agree, while 38% of voters disagree, 22% are neutral.
Forty-one percent of voters agree that legislators who left Texas to avoid voting on the redistricting plan should be arrested, while 37% disagree, and 22% are neutral.
“Majorities of both Cornyn and Paxton primary voters believe legislators should be arrested, though the sentiment is 11 points higher among Paxton voters (79%) than among Cornyn voters (68%),” Kimball noted.
Executive Office Job Approval
President Trump holds a 49% job approval rating among Texas voters, while 42% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Governor Greg Abbott holds a 46% job approval, and 43% disapproval rating.
2028 Presidential First Look
Republican JD Vance leads a hypothetical 2028 presidential primary in the Super Tuesday state with 45%, followed by Texas Senator Ted Cruz with 9%, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 6%, Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 6%, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy at 5%, and 17% are undecided.
In the Democratic nomination contest, 22% support former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, 20% California Governor Gavin Newsom, and 17% former Vice President Kamala Harris. Fourteen percent are undecided.
Top Issue
The economy (30%) and immigration (21%) are the top issues for Texas voters, followed by threats to democracy (15%), healthcare (8%), crime (7%), and education (7%).
- The top issue for Republicans is the economy (33%) and immigration (30%), while the top issue for Democrats is threats to democracy (31%) and the economy (26%).
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Texas survey was conducted August 11-12, 2025. The overall sample of Texas active registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The 2026 Republican Primary consists of n=491, with a credibility interval of +/- 4.4%. The 2026 Democratic Primary consists of n=370, with a credibility interval of 5.1%.
The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting a voter list of cellphones via MMS-to-web text and email (list provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Commonwealth Opinions Panel and CINT. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College.
