Governor Race 2026: Porter Maintains Support while Padilla May Struggle to Gain Traction
A new Emerson College Polling survey of California voters finds 51% plan to vote in favor of Proposition 50 in the November special election, which would authorize temporary changes to congressional district maps. Thirty-four percent plan to vote no, and 15% are undecided. Support for Prop. 50 is higher among those “very likely” to vote in the November special election, 55% of whom plan to vote yes and 35% no.
“The first Emerson poll since the special election was officially declared to bring Proposition 50 to a vote finds over half of voters support the redistricting measure, up from 33% to 25% last month for a hypothetical redistricting proposal,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
“Support for Proposition 50 is strongest among voters with college or postgraduate degrees, at 60%, compared to 43% among those without a college degree.”
As former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger campaigns against Proposition 50, voters were asked if his opposition makes them more or less likely to support the proposition. It makes no difference to 66% of voters, while 22% say it makes them more likely to support the measure, and 12% less likely.
Regardless of how voters plan to vote, 51% think Proposition 50 is a good idea and 49% think it is a bad idea. Among those who plan to vote yes, 87% think it is a good idea and 13% a bad idea; a majority (96%) of those who plan to vote no think it is a bad idea.
Governor Gavin Newsom holds a 46% job approval rating and 40% disapproval among California voters. Since last month, Newsom’s approval increased two points, from 44% to 46%. President Donald Trump holds a 35% job approval rating, and 57% disapproval.
“Among voters who plan to vote in favor of Proposition 50, 74% approve of the job Governor Newsom is doing in office,” Kimball said. “Of those who oppose the measure, 82% disapprove of the job Newsom is doing.”
In the 2026 Primary for Governor, former Representative Katie Porter leads with 16% support, followed by Republican Steve Hilton at 10%, Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco at 8%, and former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra at 5%. A plurality of voters, 38%, remain undecided. Since August, support for Porter and Hilton has decreased by two points, respectively, while support for Bianco increased one point, and support for Becerra increased two points.
With Democratic U.S. Senator Alex Padilla added to the hypothetical ballot, Porter, Hilton, and Bianco each maintain their support, while Padilla receives 7%.
Voters were asked what, in their opinion, is the most important issue facing the United States. Thirty-one percent said the economy, 28% threats to democracy, 11% immigration, 8% crime, 8% healthcare, and 5% housing affordability.
In comparison, voters were also asked about the most important issue facing California: 30% said the economy, followed by housing affordability at 22%, threats to democracy at 13%, immigration at 11%, and crime at 9%. Since August, the economy held at 30%, while housing affordability increased three points, from 19% to 22%, and immigration decreased from 15% to 11%.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling California survey was conducted September 15-16, 2025. The overall sample of California active registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting a voter list of cellphones via MMS-to-web text, a probability-based panel of voters provided by Commonwealth Opinions Panel, and a non-probability online panel of voters provided by CINT. Non-probability panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College.
