An Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll of the June 21 Republican Alabama runoff election for US Senate finds Katie Britt with a double-digit lead over Mo Brooks, 50% to 34%. Seventeen percent (17%) of Republican voters are undecided. When these undecided voters are asked who they are leaning toward and allocated, Britt leads Brooks 59% to 41%.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Britt’s initial ballot support in the runoff is higher among men than among women, she leads Brooks 55% to 31% among men compared to 44% to 36% among women. However, 20% of women are undecided and when asked who they are leaning towards, 71% support Britt.”
Kimball continued, “Britt leads with all age groups, however her support is the strongest among those under 50, where she leads Brooks 53% to 28%.”
A plurality, 45%, of Republican runoff voters say a Trump endorsement makes no difference on who they are supporting in the election, while 40% say they are more likely to vote for a candidate if Trump endorses them and 16% say it makes them less likely to support a candidate.
“The Trump endorsement makes a more significant impact for voters without a college degree,” Kimball continued, “Half of voters without a college degree say a Trump endorsement makes them more likely to support a candidate, compared to 23% of those with a college degree or more. Whereas, 55% of voters with a college degree say it makes no difference on their vote compared to 28% of voters without a college degree.”
Following the mass shootings in Buffalo and Uvalde, Republican runoff voters were asked if these shootings have made them more likely to support stricter gun control laws, less likely to support stricter gun control laws, or if their opinion has not changed. One in five (20%) say they are more likely to support stricter gun control laws, while a quarter (25%) say they are less likely to support stricter gun control laws as result of the shootings, and 56% say they have experienced no change in opinion.
Kimball said, “Increase in support of stricter gun control laws increases with educational attainment: 15% of those with a high school degree or less say the shootings make them more likely to support gun control laws, this view increases to 19% among those who have completed some college, to 20% among those with a college degree, and 31% among those with a postgraduate degree.”
Kimball continued, “The shootings also had a larger impact on women voters’ support of gun control laws, 23% of women say they are more likely to support stricter gun control laws as result of the shootings compared to 17% of men.”
Republican runoff voters were asked if they support or oppose a law which would require a person to obtain a police permit before he or she could purchase a gun. A plurality, 48%, oppose this measure, while 29% support it, and 23% are unsure.
Regarding the impact of Alabama’s concealed carry permits, 76% say it improves public safety while 8% think it contributes to violent crime. Sixteen percent (16%) are unsure or have no opinion on the matter. think it contributes to violent crime. Sixteen percent (16%) are unsure or have no opinion on the matter.
“Among those without a college degree, 81% think concealed carry permits improve public safety, compared to a 68% who say the same with a college degree.” Kimball continued, “There is a similar difference between male and female voters: 83% of men think the permits improve safety compared to 68% of female voters.”
The Emerson College/The Hill Alabama poll was conducted June 12-13, 2022. The June 21, 2022 runoff election sample consisted of very likely Republican runoff voters in Alabama, n=1,000 with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighed by gender, age, education, and region based on a 2022 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample of SMS-to-web and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.
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