The final Emerson College Polling survey of the Arizona Republican primary finds Karrin Taylor Robson in a statistical dead-heat in the race for party nominee for Governor against Kari Lake, 47% to 46%. Just 4% are undecided heading into Tuesday’s election. When these voters indicate who they are leaning towards, the race remains in deadlock, Taylor Robson leads Lake 49% to 48%.
“A stark age divide exists within the Republican gubernatorial primary.” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling noted, “Voters under 50 break for Lake by 20 points, voters between 50 and 64 are split: 46% support Lake and 45% Taylor Robson, and voters over 65 break for Taylor Robson by a 19-point margin.”
Voters were asked if they are more or less likely to vote for a candidate who maintains that Donald Trump won the 2020 election and that it was stolen from him. A plurality of voters (39%) say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who maintains this belief, while 28% say they are less likely, and 33% say it makes no difference.
“Among those who are more likely to vote for a candidate who maintains Trump won in 2020, Lake holds 76%, and among those who are less likely to vote for a candidate who maintains Trump won, Taylor Robson holds 79%. For those who say it makes no difference on their vote, Taylor Robson leads Lake by eleven points, 52% to 41%,” noted Kimball.
Trump’s endorsement of a candidate makes a slight plurality of Arizona Republican primary voters (42%) more likely to support them, while 38% say it makes no difference and 20% say they are less likely to vote for the candidate with Trump’s endorsement.
While a majority of Republican voters view both gubernatorial frontrunners Lake and Taylor Robson favorably, intensity of their support is unique. Taylor Robson holds higher overall favorables (64%) compared to Lake (57%). However voters feel more intensely about Lake–39% view her very favorably, compared to the 27% that view Taylor Robson very favorably.
Lake’s unfavorables are about ten points higher than Taylor Robson: only 31% have a somewhat (12%) or very (18%) unfavorable view of Taylor Robson while 40% have a somewhat (13%) or very (27%) unfavorable view of Lake.
In the Republican primary to face US Senator Mark Kelly this November, Blake Masters leads with 40% support, an 18-point lead over his closest competitor Jim Lamon (22%), followed by Mark Brnovich at 14%, and Michael McGuire at 12%. Nine percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked who they lean towards, Masters maintains his lead over Lamon, 42% to 24%.
Regarding the most important issue facing Arizona, voters are split between immigration (37%) and the economy (37%). Among those who say immigration is the most important issue facing the state, 55% support Lake and 42% Taylor Robson. For those whom the economy is the most important issue, 50% support Robson and 45% Lake.
Caller ID
The Emerson College Polling survey of the Arizona Republican primary was conducted July 28-30, 2022. The Republican primary sample consisted of very likely Republican primary voters and individuals who already voted, n=600, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race/ethnicity region, and mode based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.
