The final Emerson College Polling survey of Arizona voters finds Republican Blake Masters with 48% support for US Senate, and incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly with 47%. With the 1% undecided voters’ accounted for, Kelly’s support increases to 48% and Masters holds 48%. Since September, Masters’ support has increased three points while Kelly has held 47%. A majority of voters (52%) expect Senator Mark Kelly to be re-elected, while 47% expect Masters to win. 

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said: “Arizona independent voters break for Kelly over Masters, 50% to 42%. Independent men break for Kelly by five points, 51% to 46%, whereas independent women break for Kelly by nine points, 48% to 37%.”

Fifty-two percent of voters have a favorable view of Mark Kelly while 46% have an unfavorable view of him. Half of voters (50%) have a favorable view of Masters while 46% have an unfavorable view of him. 

In the election to replace retiring Governor Doug Ducey, 49% plan to vote for Republican Kari Lake and 47% plan to vote for Democrat Katie Hobbs. Two percent are undecided. With their support accounted for, Lake’s support increases to 50% and Hobbs holds 47%. A stronger majority of voters (58%) expect Lake to win, while 43% expect Hobbs to win. 

Gubernatorial candidates are less favorable than US Senate candidates statewide: 48% of voters have a favorable view of Kari Lake, while 50% have an unfavorable view of her. Forty-nine percent have a favorable view of Katie Hobbs while 47% have an unfavorable view of her. 

In a hypothetical 2024 match-up between President Biden and former President Trump, 46% would support Trump and 42% would support Biden. Nine percent would vote for someone else. 

The economy is the most important issue for 43% of voters, followed by “threats to democracy” (19%), abortion access (11%), and immigration (9%). 

Seventy-four percent of voters find it very (57%) or somewhat (17%) important that candidates running for Governor participate in a debate prior to the November election. Twenty-six percent find gubernatorial debate participation not too important (16%) or not at all important (10%). 

Kimball noted, “Among the 57% majority of voters who find it ‘very important’ for gubernatorial candidates to participate in a debate, 71% plan to vote for Lake and 26% for Hobbs. Hobbs holds the majority of support among those who find it somewhat important 62% to 34%, and not too important 82% to 12%.”


The Emerson College Polling Arizona poll was conducted October 30-November 1, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel.