U.S. Senate: Gallego 44%, Lake 40%

A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey in Arizona finds 48% support former President Donald Trump and 44% support President Joe Biden on the presidential ballot in 2024; 8% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Trump’s overall support is 52%, and Biden 48%.

“Trump voters support the former president because they care about an issue, 33%, or like Trump, 30%, whereas 43% of Biden voters support him because they dislike Trump, the highest sentiment among Biden voters in the swing states polled this month,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted.

  • 45% of independents support Trump, 41% support Biden, and 14% are undecided. With the undecided push, 53% support Trump and 47% Biden. 

A majority of Arizona voters (58%) do not believe Joe Biden deserves to be re-elected, while 42% think he deserves to be re-elected.

Voters were asked if Donald Trump deserves another chance to run for president after what happened on January 6, 2021. 

  • 51% think he deserves another chance to run
  • 49% think he does not deserve another chance to run

In the U.S. Senate election, 44% of voters support Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego, while 40% support Republican Kari Lake in a potential November U.S. Senate election. Sixteen percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Gallego’s support increases to 51%, and Lake to 49%.

“With Sinema off the ballot, independent voters break toward Gallego, 42% to 38%,” Kimball noted. “Voters under 40 break for Gallego 44% to 30%, while voters aged 40 to 59 break for Lake. Those in their 60s are split: 47% for Gallego and 46% for Lake, and those over 70 turn back to Gallego, 50% to 45%.”

Immigration is the top issue for Arizona voters at 32%, followed by the economy (22%), housing affordability (11%), education (8%), healthcare (7%), abortion access (6%), threats to democracy (6%), and crime (5%).

  • Voters who say immigration is their top issue break for Lake, 77% to 12%. 
  • Voters who say the economy is their top issue break for Gallego, 43% to 38%. 

Thirty-six percent of Arizona voters approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as President, while 56% disapprove. Governor Katie Hobbs carries a 38% approval rating, while 41% disapprove of the job she is doing.

Half (50%) of voters think things in Arizona are on the wrong track, while 28% say the state is heading in the right direction.


The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Arizona survey was conducted March 12-15, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (AZ S.O.S.).

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

Data was collected by contacting an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and a consumer list of emails (both provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.

This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found under “Full Results.”