Governor Newsom with Highest Net Approval of 2025
A new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey finds Republican Chad Bianco (13%), Republican Steve Hilton (12%), Democrat Eric Swalwell (12%), and Democrat Katie Porter (11%) leading the June 2026 primary for California Governor, while 31% are undecided. Since the Emerson October poll, Bianco’s support increased by two percentage points, Hilton lost four points, Porter lost four points, and Swalwell entered the race.
“As California turns to its next major statewide election after the passing of Proposition 50, no clear leader for the 2026 gubernatorial primary has yet emerged,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Upon entering the race, Swalwell splits the Democratic vote with Porter, 20% supporting Swalwell and 17% Porter. Republican voters are split between Bianco and Hilton, at 33% and 30%, while a plurality of independents, 45%, are undecided.”
Governor Gavin Newsom holds a 47% job approval rating, while 39% disapprove of the job he is doing as Governor.
“The governor’s +8 net approval rating reflects its highest of the year in an Emerson College poll,” Kimball noted. “Newsom’s strongest group is voters under 40, who approve of the Governor by a 21-point margin.”
Voters are split on how Gavin Newsom’s endorsement of a candidate for Governor might influence their vote: 33% say Newsom’s endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, 33% say his endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate, and 35% no difference.
A majority of voters (52%) have a favorable view of Newsom, while 38% have an unfavorable view of the Governor.
Gubernatorial candidate Katie Porter holds a 30% favorable rating, and 34% unfavorable, with 37% unsure or never heard of Porter. Rep. Swalwell holds a 24% favorable rating, and 23% unfavorable; a majority (53%) are unsure or have not heard of him.
Thirty-four percent of voters think the economy is the most important issue facing California, followed by housing affordability (25%), immigration (10%), threats to democracy (10%), and healthcare (9%).
Seven percent of voters rate the current state of the economy in California as “excellent,” 27% rate it as “good,” 30% “fair,” and 36% “poor.”
A majority of voters (51%) think Governor Newsom is most responsible for the current state of the economy in California, while 27% think President Trump is responsible, 5% former President Joe Biden, 5% the Republican majority in Congress, and 12% none of them.
A majority of California voters (60%) think that mass deportations of undocumented/illegal immigrants in California are a bad thing, while 40% think they are a good thing.
Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential nomination contest, Gavin Newsom leads the Democratic Primary with 36% support, up 13 points from August. Pete Buttigieg received 16% support, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (13%) and Kamala Harris (9%). Fifteen percent would support someone else, and 11% are undecided.
JD Vance leads the 2028 Republican Primary with 52% support, followed by Marco Rubio with 11%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with 10%, and Ron DeSantis with 6% support. Nine percent would support someone else, and 12% are undecided.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling California survey was conducted December 1-2, 2025. The overall sample of California active registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The Democratic Primary has a sample size of n=567 likely primary voters with a credibility interval of +/- 4.1. The Republican Primary has a sample size of n=339 likely primary voters with a credibility interval of +/- 5.3%. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting a voter list of cellphones via MMS-to-web text (lists provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Commonwealth Opinions Panel and CINT. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College & Nexstar Media.
