The final Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey of the California governor’s race finds Democrat Xavier Becerra leading the race for Governor at 28%, followed closely by Democrat Tom Steyer at 22% and Republican Steve Hilton at 21%. Twelve percent support Republican Chad Bianco, while 5% support Democrats Katie Porter and Matt Mahan, respectively. Four percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked to decide who they would support, Becerra’s support remains at 28%, and Hilton and Steyer both receive 23%.
“Xavier Becerra maintains frontrunner status in the final Emerson poll ahead of Tuesday’s primary, while Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton both have paths to advance to the November general election,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “If Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit. Steyer’s path to the runoff depends on mobilizing younger voters while limiting further gains by Becerra, whose growing coalition could siphon support from Steyer.”
Since the most recent Emerson poll in mid-May, Becerra’s support increased by nine percentage points, Steyer’s by five, Hilton’s by four, and Bianco’s by one. Support for Democrats Katie Porter and Matt Mahan dropped by five and three points, respectively.
“Becerra has built support among key Democratic constituencies, at 44% among Democrats, 36% among Hispanics, and 36% among women, while Hilton has consolidated a majority of the Republican vote with 59%, though 29% support Bianco,” Kimball added. “Steyer is the favorite among voters under 30 at 36%, and remains competitive among white voters at 25%.”
About 3 in 4 (74%) of voters say they will definitely support the candidate they chose, while 26% say there is still a chance they could change their mind come Election Day and support a different candidate.
- 88% of Hilton voters will definitely support him, while 12% could change their minds.
- 88% of Bianco voters will definitely support him, while 12% could change their minds.
- 76% of Becerra voters will definitely support him, while 24% could change their minds.
- 74% of Steyer voters will definitely support him, while 26% could change their minds.
- 61% of Mahan voters will definitely support him, while 39% could change their minds.
- 48% of Porter voters will definitely support her, while 52% could change their minds.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling California survey was conducted May 27-28, 2026. The overall sample of likely primary voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web; a probability-based panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web; and additional panel interviews provided by PureSpectrum. All respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was administered using QuestionPro, and the survey was offered in English.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below.
