A new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics/The Hill survey of California’s 22nd Congressional District finds 47% of voters support Democrat Rudy Salas and 45% support incumbent Republican Representative David Valadao for Congress, while 8% are undecided.
Since the early October poll of the district that found each candidate with 45%, Salas has gained two points, while Valadao held at 45%. The poll remains within the +/- 4.2 percent margin of error.
“Hispanic voters, who represent a majority of the district, break for Salas by 13 points, 53% to 40%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College polling. “White voters break for Valadao, 57% to 34%.”
In the presidential election, Kamala Harris leads by 14 points, 56% to 42%.
The economy is the top issue for 35% of voters, followed by homelessness (17%) and immigration (13%).
- Voters who say homelessness is their top issue break for Salas by 66 points, 80% to 14%.
- Voters who say immigration is their top issue break for Valadao by 80 points, 87% to 7%.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/Inside CA Politics/The Hill California 22nd district survey was conducted October 22-26, 2024. The sample of CA 22nd district likely voters is n=525, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 4.2 percentage points.
The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and party affiliation based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text (phone list provided by Aristotle) and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English and Spanish.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. The surveys were funded by Nexstar Media.
