Gov. Kemp Leads Abrams by Six

The latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Georgia voters finds Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock with 49% support for re-election and Republican Herschel Walker with 47% support. Two percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Warnock reaches 49.5%, just shy of the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff, while Walker follows with 47.6%. Since the last Emerson/The Hill poll in October, each candidate has gained a percentage point. A slight majority of Georgia voters (51%) expect Warnock to win the election while 50% expect Walker to win, regardless of whom they support. 

Incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams 52% to 46% in the race for Governor. A majority of voters (63%) expect Kemp to win while 37% expect Abrams to win. 

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Gender is a key factor in the Georgia races for Governor and Senate. In the Senate race, Warnock’s 15-point lead with women is directly challenged by Walker’s 14-point lead in men. However, in the Governor’s race, Stacey Abrams’ 7-point advantage with women is overshadowed by Brian Kemp’s 23-point lead with men–more than a three-to-one advantage.” 

Ninety-two percent of voters have heard, seen, or read a lot (65%) or a little (27%) about Georgia’s Senate debate; 8% have heard, seen, or read nothing at all about it. A plurality of voters (42%) say the debate worsened their opinion of Herschel Walker, 36% say it improved their opinion of Walker, and 22% say it made no impact. Warnock’s reception is more split: 35% say it worsened their opinion of Warnock, 34% say it improved their opinion of the Senator, and 32% say it made no difference. 

President Biden holds a 52% disapproval among Georgia voters, while 41% approve of the job he is doing. In a hypothetical election between President Biden and former President Trump, voters support Trump (47%) over Biden (44%) by three points.. Eight percent would support someone else.

Forty percent of voters say Trump’s endorsement of a candidate makes them less likely to vote for that candidate, while 31% say it makes them more likely to support the candidate and 29% say it makes no difference on their vote. 

The economy is the most important issue for 46% of Georgia voters, followed by “threats to democracy” (12%), and abortion access (11%). 

Kimball noted, “For voters who say the economy is their top issue, 75% plan to vote for Walker. Nearly 9 in 10 voters (89%) whose top issues are ‘threats to democracy’ or abortion access plan to vote for Warnock.”

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling survey of Georgia voters was conducted October 28-31, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an online panel, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.

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