An Emerson College Polling/WGN-TV/The Hill survey of Illinois voters finds half of voters (50%) support Governor JB Pritzker for re-election, while 41% support his Republican opponent State Senator Darren Bailey. Three percent plan to vote for Libertarian Scott Schluter, and 2% would support someone else. Four percent are undecided. Since last month’s Illinois poll where 8% were undecided, Pritzker has gained one percentage point and Bailey has gained five percentage points.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Pritzker holds the majority of support among Chicago voters at 66% and voters in the surrounding suburbs with 52%. Bailey’s support comes from outside the Chicago area, where he leads Pritzker 53% to 40%.”
In the election for US Senate, incumbent Democrat Tammy Duckworth holds 49% support, while 39% plan to vote for Republican Kathy Salvi. Eight percent are undecided. Since last month where 16% were undecided, Duckworth has lost one percentage point and Salvi has gained eight percentage points.
Kimball added, “A gender divide exists in both the Governor and Senate races: men break for Bailey 49% to 43%, while women break for Pritzker 58% to 34%; Similarly, men break for Salvi 48% to 41%, while women break for Duckworth 56% to 32%. Independents favor Bailey over Prtizker 46% to 39%, and Salvi over Duckworth 45% to 38%.”
In the election for Secretary of State, 48% plan to vote for Democrat Alexi Giannoulias while 39% plan to vote for Republican Dan Brady. Nine percent are undecided. For Attorney General, 47% support Democrat Kwame Raoul and 39% plan to vote for Republican Thomas DeVore; 9% are undecided. In the State Treasurer election, 46% support Democrat Michael Frerichs while 36% support Republican Tom Demmer. Fourteen percent are undecided.
The economy is the most important issue in determining the vote of 39% of Illinois voters, followed by threats to democracy (18%), abortion access (12%), and crime (9%).
A majority of voters (54%) plan to vote yes on Illinois Amendment 1, which would add a new section to the Illinois Constitution’s Bill of Rights guaranteeing workers the right to organize, bargain collectively, and negotiate wages, hours, and working conditions. Thirty percent plan to vote no, and sixteen percent are undecided.
Fifty-two percent (52%) majority of voters think things in Illinois are on the wrong track, while 48% think things are headed in the right direction. Kimball noted, “Among voters who say the state is headed down the wrong track, 75% plan to vote for Bailey and 11% Pritzker. Of those who say the state is headed in the right direction, Pritzker has a commanding lead, 93% to 4%.”
In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, Biden holds a 12-point lead over Trump, 49% to 37%; 10% would vote for someone else and 4% are undecided. Illinois voters are split on President Biden’s job performance: 46% approve and 46% disapprove of the job he is doing as president.
The Emerson College Polling/WGN/The Hill Illinois poll was conducted October 20-24, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.02 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, web survey via email, and an online panel.