An Emerson College Polling survey in Indiana finds a plurality of voters (39%) to be undecided in a hypothetical 2024 U.S. Senate matchup to replace retiring Republican Senator Mike Braun. Republican candidate Rep. Jim Banks receives 31% support from Indiana voters, giving him a nine-point advantage over Democratic challenger and clinical psychologist Valerie McCray, who receives 22% support. Eight percent plan to vote for someone else.
“It appears both potential nominees have strong support within their own parties: McCray holds the support of 62% of Democrats, and Banks holds the support of 58% of Republicans,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said. “A 58% majority of independents are undecided in the hypothetical 2024 Senate race, and for those who made up their mind, they are split with 16% in support of McCray and 15% in support of Banks.”
Just shy of a quarter (24%) of residents approve of the job President Joe Biden is doing in office, while 61% disapprove of the job Biden is doing. Sixteen percent are neutral toward the President. Thirty-seven percent of Indiana residents approve of the job Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb is doing, while a quarter of residents (25%) disapprove of his performance. A plurality (39%) are neutral toward the term-limited Governor.
In a 2024 hypothetical election between President Biden and former President Trump, Trump leads Biden 48% to 29%, with 16% supporting someone else and 8% undecided.
“Trump leads Biden among all age groups, except the 18-24 year old vote, who break for Biden over Trump 41% to 29%,” Kimball said.
“Trump voters appear to be more locked in on their candidate than Biden supporters in Indiana,” Kimball said. “A majority of Trump supporters, 57%, say there is nothing the former president can do or say in the next several months that would change their vote, compared to 40% of Biden supporters who say the same about Biden.”
A majority of Indiana residents (66%) believe Donald Trump won the 2016 election fair and square, while 17% believe Trump stole the election. Hoosiers are more split on the 2020 election; 46% believe Joe Biden won the election fair and square, 36% believe he stole the election.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Indiana poll was conducted October 1-4, 2023. The voter sample consisted of n=462 Indiana voters with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The overall sample consisted of n=509 residents, with a credibility interval of +/- 4.3%. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, race, and education based on the general population using a sample of n=509 participants and allowing the natural fallout to create the sample of n=462 voters. Turnout modeling is based on US Census parameters, and Indiana voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (IN SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling, and questions included in this release are all sponsored by Emerson College. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found here.
