The final Emerson College Polling Iowa survey finds 55% of Republican caucus voters plan to support Donald Trump on Monday evening, while 21% support Nikki Haley, and 15% Ron DeSantis. Five percent support Vivek Ramaswamy and 2% Asa Hutchinson. Four percent are undecided. Since the last Emerson Iowa poll in December, Trump’s support has increased five points, from 50% to 55%, while Haley’s support increased four points, from 17% to 21%. DeSantis held his 15% support, and Ramaswamy’s support fell three points, from 8% to 5%. 

“We don’t expect any big surprises on Monday, with most voters saying they will not change their minds ahead of tomorrow’s caucus,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Trump voters are the most locked in: 83% of Trump voters say they will definitely support him, rather than say there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else, compared to 74% of Haley voters and 75% of DeSantis voters.”

“In the past several months, no candidate has been able to chip away at Trump’s solid base of support in the caucus. While the race for second place has become more competitive among older and college educated voters, Trump maintains at least a plurality of support over Haley and DeSantis among these groups, making it difficult for DeSantis or Haley to secure the base needed to be formidable competitors in Iowa,” Kimball added.

  • Trump’s support is highest among voters whose highest degree of education is high school or less, at 69%, whereas Nikki Haley performs the strongest among those with postgraduate degrees at 34%. Haley still trails Trump among postgraduates 34% to 43%. 
  • Sixty-one percent of Republican caucus voters under 30 plan to vote for Trump, compared to 51% of those in their 30s, 60% of those in their 40s, 45% of those in their 50s, 60% of those in their 60s, and 59% of those over 70. DeSantis is his strongest among voters in their 50s at 23%, while 19% of these voters support Haley. Haley’s strongest age group is voters over 70, at 28%.
  • Trump leads with 56% of the male vote and 54% of the female vote while Haley has 21% of the male vote and 20% of the female vote.

“Trump has the support of the Iowa Republican evangelical community and the non-evangelical community,” Kimball said. “His support among evangelicals is three points higher than among non-evangelicals, 56% to 53%, while 18% of evangelicals support Haley, and 16% DeSantis. Among non-evangelical voters, 26% support Haley and 12% DeSantis.”

Half of voters say they watched all (21%) or some (29%) of the Republican debate on Jan. 10, among whom 32% think Haley won the debate, 27% think DeSantis won, and 41% think neither candidate won. Thirty-nine percent watched all (18%) or some (21%) of Trump’s town hall on the same day, while 61% did not. 

Among Republican caucus voters, 36% think neither candidate won the Republican debate, 34% think DeSantis won, and 30% think Haley won. Among Democratic caucus voters, 50% think neither candidate won, 36% think Haley won, and 14% think DeSantis won. 

In the Democratic mail-in caucus, 72% of voters plan to support President Biden, while 5% support Marianne Williamson, and 2% Dean Phillips. Twenty-one percent are undecided. 

A third of Iowa voters (33%) say the economy is the top issue facing their state, followed by “threats to democracy” (14%), immigration (13%), healthcare (11%), education (10%), abortion access (8%), crime (5%), and housing affordability (4%). 

  • Among Republican caucus voters, 43% say the economy is the top issue followed by immigration at 21%. No other issue surpassed 10%.
  • Democratic caucus voters split between issues: 23% find “threats to democracy” to be the top issue facing Iowa, 17% the economy, 17% healthcare, and 16% education. 

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling Iowa survey was conducted January 11-13 2024. The sample of Iowa voters, n=899, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The Republican caucus has a sample of n=532 likely caucus voters, with a credibility interval of +/- 4.2%. The Democratic caucus has a sample size of n=367, with a credibility interval of +/- 5.1%. 

Data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters and Iowa voter registration data. Data was collected by contacting an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, SMS-to-web, and a voter list of emails provided by Aristotle, an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer and an opt-in panel provided by the US Panel project.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under “Full Results.” This survey was funded by Emerson College.

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