Trump Leads Biden in Swing States and National Poll as Biden’s Support Declines

New polling conducted July 15-16 by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Democrats for Next Generation finds former President Trump leading Biden in seven swing states and in a national poll.

In the July 15-16 national poll, 46% of registered voters support Trump, and 42% support Biden; 12% are undecided. There has been a two-point drop in Biden’s support since earlier this month, where 46% supported Trump, and 44% supported Biden. 

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said, “Recent polling shows Biden losing support more significantly than Trump gaining it since the attempted assassination. This raises questions about whether Biden’s decline is still influenced by the debate or if Trump has reached his support ceiling.”

When third-party candidates are added to the ballot test, Trump either maintains or extends his advantage in the national poll and 6 of 7 swing states. 

  • Arizona: Trump 46%, Biden 36%, other candidates 8.2% 
  • Georgia: Trump 44%, Biden 39%, other candidates 9.3%
  • Michigan: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 8.3%
  • Nevada: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 9.2%
  • North Carolina: Trump 47%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.7%
  • Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 40%, other candidates 6.3%
  • Wisconsin: Trump 46%, Biden 43%, other candidates 6.5%
  • National: Trump 44%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.4 %

Since March 2024, Trump has gained one point in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and two points in Arizona, while he has lost a point in Michigan. 

State Results% point movement for Biden% point movement for Trump
Arizona-2+2
Georgia-1+1
Michigan-2-1
Nevada-1+1
North Carolina-4+1
Pennsylvania-1+1
Wisconsin-2+1

When asked if President Biden should withdraw from the race, 52% nationally think he should and 48% think he should not. Regarding whether former President Trump should withdraw, 56% think he should not and 44% think he should. 

  • Among Democratic Primary voters, 64% think Biden should not withdraw, while 36% think he should. 64% of Republican Primary voters think Biden should withdraw, 36% think he should not. 
  • A majority of white (54%) and Hispanic (55%) voters think Biden should withdraw, while a majority of Black voters (65%) think he should not. 
  • About 60% of voters under 50 think Biden should withdraw while 60% of voters over 60 think he should not.
    •  Breakdown by age  (60% of voters 18-29 think Biden should withdraw, 61% of voters in their 30s, 57% in their 40s, 54% in their 50s, 39% in their 60s, and 42% of those over 70 think Biden should withdraw.)
  • 88% of Republican Primary voters think Trump should not withdraw, 12% think he should. 75% of Democratic Primary voters think Trump should withdraw, and 25% think he should not. 
  • 52% of women and 52% of men think Biden should withdraw, and 50% of women also think Trump should withdraw, compared to 36% of men. 
State Results% who say Biden should withdraw from the race% who say Trump should withdraw from the race
Arizona52%45%
Georgia51%45%
Michigan55%45%
Nevada51%47%
North Carolina57%41%
Pennsylvania51%44%
Wisconsin53%45%

In the national survey, 32% of new voters support Trump while 24% back Biden. In the seven-state swing poll, Trump leads with 36% of new voter support compared to Biden’s 27%. According to exit polls, new voters have broken for the Democratic presidential candidate since 1992.

State Results% of new voters who support Biden% of new voters who support Trump
Arizona19%30%
Georgia28%37%
Michigan30%34%
Nevada26%41%
North Carolina32%30%
Pennsylvania37%28%
Wisconsin18%52%

Methodology

The July, June-July, and March 2024 state polls consist of n=1,000 registered voters per state with a credibility interval of +/-3% per state. 

The sample for the most recent national poll (7/15-16) is n=2,000, with a credibility interval of +/-2.1%. The June-July national poll (6/30-7/2) consists of n=1,000 registered voters with a credibility interval of +/-3%.

The newest state and national polls were fielded July 15-16, 2024. The previous state and national polls were conducted June 30-July 2, 2024. The March polls were conducted March 16-20, 2024. 

The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle and an online panel provided by CINT. 

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The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling, and sponsored by the organization Democrats for the Next Generation.

All crosstabs and data sets are available at the link below.

FULL RESULTS