Trump’s Criminal Indictments Raise More Doubts for Voters than Bidens’ Age
Economy and Crime are Top Issues for Maryland Voters
The first Emerson College Polling/The Hill/DC News Now survey of the 2024 Maryland U.S. Senate Election finds former Governor Larry Hogan tied with Rep. David Trone, with 42% supporting each in a hypothetical general election matchup. Sixteen percent are undecided. Hogan holds a seven-point lead in a hypothetical matchup against County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, 44% to 37%, with 19% undecided.
Hogan leads the Republican senate primary with a plurality of voters’ support (43%) ahead of the May 14 election. No other candidate reaches double digits, and 43% are undecided. In the Democratic primary, 32% of voters support Rep. David Trone, while 17% support County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. A plurality of Democratic Primary voters (37%) are undecided.
“In addition to the majority of Republican voters’ support in the general election, Hogan also holds broad appeal in a matchup against Trone among independents, at 48%, and also garners nearly a quarter of Democratic voters’ support,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In a matchup between Hogan and Alsobrooks, independents support Hogan 43% to 18%, and 31% of Democrats support Hogan.”
A plurality of Maryland voters (46%) think things in the state are headed in the right direction, while 38% think things are on the wrong track.
In a potential presidential election between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Biden leads 55% to 32%, while 13% are undecided. With third-party candidates added to the ballot test, Biden leads 47% to 31%, while 6% support Robert Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively. Fourteen percent are undecided.
“While Trump’s vote looks like his 2020 share of voters at 32%, Biden underperforms by about ten points. Eleven percent of 2020 Biden voters are undecided, compared to 3% of Trump voters,” Kimball noted.
Voters were asked if President Biden’s age raises serious doubts in their mind about voting for him, or if it is not a serious consideration for them. Fifty-four percent of Maryland voters say Biden’s age raises doubts, while 46% say it is not a consideration. Voters were asked if former President Trump’s criminal indictments raise serious doubts about voting for Trump, or if it is not serious consideration. Two-thirds of voters (66%) say it raises doubts, while it is not a consideration for 34%.
The economy (23%) and crime (21%) are considered the most important issues for Maryland voters, followed by housing affordability (11%), education (10%), immigration (10%), healthcare (10%), and threats to democracy (8%).
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill New York Maryland poll was conducted February 12-13, 2024. The sample consisted of 1,000 Maryland registered voters and with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, party, race, and education based on US Census parameters, and Maryland voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (MD SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR), emails provided by Aristotle, and an online panel provided by Alchemer.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know that with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. Numbers included in the press release are rounded to the nearest whole number, therefore totals might not always equal 100.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, full results and cross tabulations can be found below.