Top Democratic Candidates Competitive Against GOP’s Rogers
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan finds 22% support State Senator Mallory McMorrow, 17% U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, and 16% Physician Abdul El-Sayed. A plurality of voters (38%) are undecided ahead of the August primary.
“The first Emerson College survey of the race to replace retiring Senator Gary Peters finds a close battle between the top three candidates, McMorrow, Stevens, and El-Sayed,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “McMorrow’s strength is among voters over 60 (37%), while El-Sayed’s is strongest among voters under 30, with 24%; Steven’s support is relatively consistent among age groups.”
The top three Democratic Senate candidates were tested in matchups against Republican candidate and former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers. In a race between McMorrow and Rogers, 46% support McMorrow and 43% Rogers; 12% are undecided. In a matchup between Stevens and Rogers, 47% support Stevens and 42% Rogers; 11% are undecided. Between El-Sayed and Rogers, 43% support each candidate; 15% are undecided.
Among independents, Stevens and McMorrow hold double-digit advantages over Rogers (13 and 12 points, respectively), while El-Sayed leads by three points.
President Trump holds a 43% approval rating among Michigan voters, while 51% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Governor Gretchen Whitmer has a 48% job approval rating, while 40% disapprove of the job Whitmer is doing in office.
Michigan voters were asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of the candidates for U.S. Senate:
- Mallory McMorrow: 23% favorable/12% unfavorable/27% unsure/38% never heard of
- Among Democratic primary voters: 41% favorable/7% unfavorable
- Haley Stevens: 20% favorable/19% unfavorable/32% unsure/30% never heard of
- Among Democratic primary voters: 34% favorable/11% unfavorable
- Abdul El-Sayed: 20% favorable/25% unfavorable/25% unsure/30% never heard of
- Among Democratic primary voters: 38% favorable/7% unfavorable
- Rogers: 33% favorable/37% unfavorable/23% unsure/7% never heard of
Senator Bernie Sanders, who endorsed El-Sayed, has a 46% favorable rating and 40% unfavorable rating among Michigan voters. Among likely Democratic primary voters, Sanders has a 79% favorable and 8% unfavorable.
Forty percent of voters think the economy is the top issue facing Michigan, followed by threats to democracy (15%), healthcare (12%), housing affordability (11%), and immigration (8%).
The economy is the top issue for Republican primary voters, cited by 52%, followed by immigration (16%) and housing affordability (10%). Among Democratic voters, economic concerns also rank first at 29%, closely followed by threats to democracy (28%), healthcare (17%), and housing affordability (12%).
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Michigan survey was conducted January 24-25, 2025. The overall sample of Michigan likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting a voter list of cellphones via MMS-to-web text (lists provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Commonwealth Opinions Panel and PureSpectrum. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below.
