A new Emerson College Polling survey of Montana voters finds Democratic Senator Jon Tester with 39% support for re-election in 2024, while 35% support Republican Tim Sheehy. Six percent plan to vote for someone else, and 21% are undecided.
“There is a significant gender divide among Montana voters,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said. “Tester leads Sheehy among women by 16 points, 46% to 30%, whereas Sheehy leads among men by eight points, 40% to 32%.”
Governor Greg Gianforte holds a 37% job approval among Montana residents, while 26% disapprove of the job he is doing. Thirty-seven percent are neutral toward the governor. A majority of Montanans (63%) disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President, while 22% approve of Biden’s performance in office. Sixteen percent are neutral toward the president.
In a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, 49% support Trump, 28% support Biden, 16% support someone else, and 7% are undecided.
“Voters split their ticket on the U.S. Senate and presidential elections in 2024,” Kimball noted. “Twelve percent of Trump voters plan to split their ticket and vote Tester for Senate. This is driven by Tester’s support among independents and women voters. Among independents, Tester outperforms Biden by 11 points, with 38% compared to Biden’s 27%. Among women, Tester outperforms Biden by 15 points, with 46% compared to Biden’s 31%.”
A majority of Trump voters (53%) say there is nothing Donald Trump could say or do in the next several months to change their vote, compared to 48% of Biden voters who say the same. Twelve percent of Trump voters can think of something to make them change their mind, compared to 15% of Biden voters.
Residents were asked which comes closest to their view regarding the 2016 and 2020 elections, if it was won fair and square, or if it was stolen by the candidate that won. Regarding the 2016 election, 65% think it was won fair and square by former President Trump, while 14% think it was stolen, and 21% are unsure. Views on the 2020 election are more split: 42% think it was won fair and square by President Biden, 39% think it was stolen, and 19% are unsure.
Midwest Study: The Montana general election survey is part of a 22-state study on the Midwest region and surrounding states. Look out for the study results by the Middle West Review, that is researching perceptions of the Midwest region this Fall.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Montana poll was conducted October 1-4, 2023. The sample consisted of 447 registered voters, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. The overall sample consisted of 499 residents, with a credibility interval of +/- 4.4 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, party, race, and education based on the general population using a sample of n=499 participants and allowing the natural fallout to create the sample of n=447. Turnout modeling is based on US Census parameters, and Montana voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (MT SOS). Data was collected by contacting emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling, and questions included in this release are all sponsored by Emerson College. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found here.
