Tim Sheehy 48%, Jon Tester 46%
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Montana voters finds 55% of voters support former president Donald Trump, while 40% support Vice President Kamala Harris in November. Five percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked the candidate they lean toward, Trump’s overall support increases to 58%, and Harris’ to 43%. With third-party candidates on the ballot, 54% support Trump, 39% Harris, and 5% support Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; 3% are undecided.
“Since the March 2024 Emerson poll in Montana, Trump’s support has decreased a point, while Harris improved five points on Biden’s 35%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Harris has picked up ground among women voters — 47% support Harris compared to 40% who supported Biden, while Trump maintains around 61% support among male voters. Voters with college degrees have also flipped; in March, they broke for Trump by seven points, now breaking for Harris by seven.”
In the U.S. Senate election between Democrat Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy, 48% support Sheehy, 46% Tester, and 5% are undecided.
“The share of undecided voters has decreased from 14% to 5% as November draws closer, and Sheehy has benefited with a six-point increase in support, while Tester’s support has only increased by two points,” Kimball said.
- Women voters break for Tester 53% to 41%; male voters break for Sheehy 56% to 40%.
President Joe Biden holds a 31% job approval rating, and 60% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Governor Greg Gianforte holds a 41% job approval, while 41% disapprove of the job he is doing in office.
Vice President Harris is viewed favorably by 42% of Montana voters, while 58% have an unfavorable view of her. Donald Trump is viewed favorably by 55% of Montana voters, while 45% have an unfavorable view of him.
The top issue for Montana voters is the economy (40%), followed by housing affordability (27%), threats to democracy (10%), immigration (6%), healthcare (5%), and abortion access (4%).
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Montana survey was conducted August 5-6, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text, (list provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Nexstar Media & Emerson College.
