Sen. Rosen 40%, Sam Brown 38%, 22% undecided
A new Emerson College Polling/KLAS-TV/The Hill poll of Nevada voters finds 46% support former President Donald Trump, while 40% support President Joe Biden in a 2024 presidential election matchup. Fourteen percent are undecided. With third-party candidates added to the ballot, Trump’s lead increases to ten points, leading 44% to 34%, while 6% support Robert Kennedy Jr., and one percent support Cornel West and Jill Stein; 13% are undecided.
“Hispanic voters in Nevada are split: 44% support Trump and 41% support Biden, while white voters break for Trump 51% to 39%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Women voters are also split: 43% support Biden and 42% Trump, while men break for Trump 51% to 37%.”
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris trails Trump 39% to 48% in a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup, with 14% undecided. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails Trump 32% to 49%, with 20% undecided.
Sixty-one percent of voters say President Biden’s age raises serious doubts in their minds about voting for him, while 39% say his age is not a serious consideration for them. Fifty-three percent say former President Trump’s criminal indictments raise doubts in their mind about voting for Trump in 2024, while 47% note it is not a serious consideration.
Thirty-five percent of voters think Nevada is headed in the right direction, while 38% think things are on the wrong track. President Biden holds a 34% job approval among Nevada voters and a 55% disapproval rating. Governor Joe Lombardo holds a 42% approval, while 29% disapprove of the job he is doing, and 29% are neutral.
In a U.S. Senate election between incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen and Republican Sam Brown, 40% support Rosen, 38% support Brown, and 22% are undecided. In a matchup between Rosen and Republican Jeff Gunter, 43% support Rosen, 32% Gunter, and 25% are undecided. Between Rosen and Republican Jim Marchant, 42% support Rosen, 36% Marchant, and 22% are undecided.
The economy is the top issue for 26% of Nevada voters, followed by immigration (14%), education (14%), housing affordability (13%), and healthcare (11%).
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Nevada survey was conducted February 16-19, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (NV S.O.S.).
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and a consumer list of emails (both provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found under “Full Results.”
