Hypothetical Biden and Trump Rematch Tightens Since October

The first Emerson College Polling survey in Nevada of 2024 finds former President Doald Trump with a 65-point lead over his closest competitor, Ron DeSantis, in the Republican Party-run presidential caucus, 73% to 8%. Six percent support Vivek Ramaswamy, 4% support Chris Christie, and 1% Ryan Binkley. Eight percent are undecided.

“With Nikki Haley opting to be named on the state primary ballot on Feb. 6 rather than the party caucus on Feb. 8, Trump does not have much competition on the ballot,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said. “The poll found more Republican voters in Nevada plan to vote in the Republican state-held primary compared to the party-held caucus.”

In the Democratic Primary taking place on February 6, 78% of voters plan to support President Joe Biden, while 19% are undecided. 

“While majorities of all age groups support Biden as the nominee, 34% of Gen Z and Millennial voters under 40 are still undecided in the Democratic Primary,” Kimball said. 

The president holds a 36% job approval among Nevada voters, while 54% disapprove of the job Biden is doing in office. A third of Nevada voters (33%) approve of the job Senator Jacky Rosen is doing in office, while 37% disapprove, and 31% are neutral. 

In a hypothetical 2024 election between Biden and Trump, 47% of voters plan to support Trump while 45% support Biden. Eight percent are undecided. This reflects a much tighter race than the last Emerson poll in Nevada in October, where Trump led Biden 46% to 39%, with 14% undecided. 

When independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein are added to the hypothetical ballot, Trump’s lead over Biden slightly increases, with 42% supporting Trump and 39% supporting Biden. Five percent would support Kennedy, while West and Stein received 1% respectively. 

“Independent voters break for Trump over Biden by 12 points, 49% to 37%, with 14% undecided,” Kimball said. “When independent candidates are added to the ballot, Kennedy Jr. garners the support of 8% of independent Nevada voters, and Trump’s lead over Biden among independents increases by two points, leading 42% to 28%. Two percent support West and Stein respectively, and the share of undecided independent voters increases four points to 18%.” 

The economy is the most important issue to 29% of Nevada voters, followed by housing affordability (13%), immigration (12%), education (11%), “threats to democracy” (10%), crime (9%), healthcare (9%), and abortion access (4%). 

“Voters who find the economy to be the top issue facing their state break for Trump over Biden 57% to 35%, along with immigration 90% to 6%,” Kimball said. “Voters who find housing affordability to be the top issue break for Biden 57% to 36%, along with education 63% to 31%, and threats to democracy 68% to 27%.”


The Emerson College Polling Nevada survey was conducted January 5-8, 2024. The sample of Nevada voters, n=1,294, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The Republican caucus has a sample of n=277, with a credibility interval of +/- 5.9%. The Democratic primary has a sample size of n=435, with a credibility interval of +/- 4.7%. 

Data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and Nevada voter registration information. Data was collected by contacting an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, MMS-to-web, and a voter list of emails provided by Aristotle, an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under “Full Results.” This survey was funded by Emerson College.