A new Emerson College Poll of New Jersey likely voters finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a significant lead in the Garden state, with 55% of the vote and President Trump at 38%. Among the 7% of undecided voters, 44% were leaning towards Joe Biden, 33% leaning towards President Trump, and 23% said they were leaning towards someone else. The survey was conducted September 4-7, 2020 of n=500 likely voters (+/-4.4%).
Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling found “Biden is performing a few points better than Clinton did in 2016 which is a similar trend we have seen in other states around the country.”
President Trump’s popularity in New Jersey is about 10 points below his national numbers with The majority of New Jersey voters (56%) disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, whereas 38% approve, and 7% were neutral.
Half of New Jersey voters (50%) said they plan to vote by mail in November, 35% said they plan to vote in-person on election day, and 15% plan to vote in-person early.
Of those planning to vote for President Trump, 25% intend to vote early in-person and 53% plan to vote in-person on election day. Of those supporting Biden, 66% intend to vote by mail, 24% in-person on election day and 11% early in-person. Undecided voters seem to be in agreement on their voting plan, with 78% reporting they intend to vote by mail.
Biden leads with both female (56% to 37%) and male (54% to 38%) voters. Independents break for Biden 50% to 35%. The only demographic category Trump leads Biden is with voters with a High School degree or lower with 48% of the vote to 44%.
Senator Cory Booker leads Republican challenger Rik Mehta 52% to 28%, 16% were undecided and 5% said they plan to vote for someone else.
When voters were asked how much confidence they have in the election results regardless of who wins in November, 45% said they were somewhat confident in election results, 25% were somewhat unconfident, 24% were very confident, and 6% said they have no confidence at all.
Among party lines, Democratic voters were most likely to report feeling somewhat confident in the results, with 54% feeling so. Republicans were narrowly behind with 41% feeling somewhat confident, and 37% of Independents. Independent voters reported the highest feelings of somewhat uncertainty, with 33%. Republican voters lead amongst those who reported they will have no confidence in the election results, with 11% compared to 8% of Independents and 2% of Democrats.
The New Jersey Emerson College poll was conducted September 4-7, 2020. The sample consisted of likely Democratic, Republican, and Independent voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.4 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, party affiliation, race and region based on 2016 voter turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines (n=267) and an online panel provided by MTurk (n=233).