The latest Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill survey of New York voters finds Governor Kathy Hochul with 50% support for re-election, while 44% plan to support Republican Lee Zeldin. Four percent are undecided, and 2% plan to vote for someone else. Undecided voters were asked whom they lean towards supporting, and with their support allocated, Hochul’s support increases to 52% and Zeldin holds at 44%. Since the September Emerson/Pix11/The Hill poll, Hochul has held her 50% support while Zeldin’s support has increased nine percentage points, from 35% to 44%. 

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said: “In September, Hochul was winning independent voters 47% to 35%. Over a month later, a 52% majority of independent voters now support Zeldin, and 41% support Hochul. Independent men break toward Zeldin 58% to 37%, and independent women are split: 46% support Zeldin and 45% Hochul.”

In the election for US Senate, 51% plan to support incumbent Chuck Schumer, while 36% support Joe Pinion. Eight percent are undecided. With their support allocated, Schumer’s support increases to 53% and Pinion to 40%. Since September, Senator Schumer has lost three percentage points and Joe Pinion has gained five percentage points.  

President Biden holds a 47% disapproval among New York voters, and 46% approval. In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump. Eleven percent would vote for someone else and 3% are undecided. Since last month, Biden’s support has lowered six points, while Trump’s support has increased two percentage points. 

The economy is the top issue for 33% of New York voters in determining their November vote, followed by threats to democracy (15%), crime (13%), abortion access (11%), and healthcare (7%).

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters think the current bail reform policy in New York has increased crime, while 28% think it has had no impact on crime, 16% think it has decreased it. 

When asked if they think abortion should be allowed in the third trimester, 36% think they should always be allowed, 29% think they should be allowed if there is risk to the mother’s life, 17% think they should be allowed only in cases of rape or incest, and 18% think they should never be allowed. 

A plurality of New York voters (46%) think New York should stop accepting migrants from other states, while 36% throughout the state think they should continue. Nineteen percent are neutral or have no opinion. 

As Mayor Eric Adams has called for a state of emergency in New York on the migrant crisis, a majority of voters (56%) blame the federal government for the migrant crisis, 29% of voters blame southern states, 8% blame Governor Hochul, and 7% blame Mayor Adams. 

The majority of voters (55%) say they are more likely to vote following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, while 40% say it makes no difference on their likelihood to vote. Five percent are less likely to vote. 

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill New York poll was conducted October 20-24, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.02 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, party registration, education, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel.

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