Majority of Voters Expect Jury to Find Trump Guilty on Some or All Counts
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill/PIX11 survey of New York voters finds President Joe Biden with 48% support in the 2024 presidential election, while 41% support former President Donald Trump; 12% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Biden’s lead increases to 10 points, 55% to 45%. With third-party candidates on the ballot, 44% support Biden, 38% Trump, 6% support Robert Kennedy Jr., 2% Cornel West, and 1% Jill Stein; 11% are undecided.
“Independent voters in New York who traditionally vote for Democrats, according to exit polling, have flipped to lean toward Trump by a margin of ten points, 43% to 33%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
New York voters were asked about Trump’s criminal trial, regarding charges of falsifying business records, including a hush money payment to Stormy Daniels. Twenty-seven percent expect the jury to find him guilty on all counts, 44% guilty on some counts but not all, and 29% not guilty on all counts. Regarding if voters would find Trump guilty or not based on what they have heard, 46% would find him guilty on all counts, 20% guilty on some, and 34% not guilty on all counts.
“71% of Democrats would find Trump guilty of all charges, while 71% of Republicans would find him not guilty. Independents are split: 37% say he’s not guilty, 35% say he’s guilty of all counts, and 29% think he’s guilty of some but not all counts,” Kimball noted. “Overall, 84% of Democrats, 69% of independents, and 46% of Republicans expect the jury to find him guilty of some or all charges.”
Regarding aid to Israel in the war with Hamas, 48% of New York voters think the U.S. is spending too much, 21% too little, and 31% the right amount. Regarding humanitarian relief to Palestinians, 34% think the U.S. is spending too much, 33% too little, and 33% the right amount.
- 60% of voters under 30 think the U.S. is spending too much in Israel, decreasing with age: 56% of voters in their 30s, 50% in their 40s, 44% in their 50s, 45% in their 60s, and 32% over 70 think the U.S. is spending too much in Israel.
The economy is the top issue for 34% of New York voters, followed by immigration (16%), crime (13%), housing affordability (12%), healthcare (8%), threats to democracy (7%), and education (5%).
Forty-four percent of voters think there is more crime in their area compared to a year ago, 41% think there is about the same amount of crime, and 16% less crime.
- 47% of Democrats think there is about the same amount of crime, while 62% of Republicans and 47% of independents think there is more crime.
A majority of voters (58%) consider the number of migrants seeking sanctuary in the United States a crisis, 35% think it is a problem but not a crisis, and 7% think it is not a problem at all.
President Biden holds a 39% job approval in New York, while 50% disapprove of the job he is doing. Governor Kathy Hochul holds a 34% job approval, and 49% disapproval rating.
Voters were asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of New York politicians:
- Kathy Hochul: 43% favorable, 48% unfavorable, 9% not familiar
- Chuck Schumer: 45% favorable, 45% unfavorable, 10% not familiar
- Kirsten Gillibrand: 44% favorable, 35% unfavorable, 21% not familiar
- Eric Adams: 23% favorable, 52% unfavorable, 25% not familiar
- Andrew Cuomo: 38% favorable, 57% unfavorable, 6% not familiar
Among New York City voters, 30% have a favorable view of Mayor Eric Adams, while 60% have an unfavorable view of Adams. Forty-five percent (45%) of New York City voters have a favorable view of Andrew Cuomo, and 49% have an unfavorable view of the former governor.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling New York survey was conducted May 28-29, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on US Census parameters, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was sponsored by Nexstar Media.
