The final Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey of the New York City Democratic mayoral primary finds former Governor Andrew Cuomo leading with 35% support, followed closely by Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani at 32%, and Comptroller Brad Lander at 13%. City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams follows with 8%, Scott Stringer with 3%, and 4% of voters remain undecided ahead of Tuesday’s election. Since last month’s poll, Mamdani gained ten points on the initial ballot test, rising from 22% to 32%, while Cuomo gained one point, 34% to 35%.

The survey allowed voters to rank up to five candidates in order of preference. The ranked-choice voting simulation over eight rounds ends with Mamdani at 52% and Cuomo at 48%. 

“Over five months, Mamdani’s support has surged from 1% to 32%, while Cuomo finishes near where he began,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “In the ranked-choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo’s 12, putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll.”

Voters who have already cast their ballots during New York City’s early voting period break for Mamdani, who holds a 10-point lead over Cuomo, 41% to 31%. In contrast, among those who plan to vote on election day or have not yet voted at the time of the survey, Cuomo leads with 36%, followed by Mamdani at 31%.

The first round of the RCV simulation includes n=800, with a margin of error of +/-3.4%. The final round includes n=729, with a MOE of +/-3.6%. Undecided voters are excluded from the rank choice simulation.

CandidateRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7Round 8
Mamdani33.733.733.834.234.835.039.451.8
Cuomo36.436.436.436.837.037.840.548.2
Lander13.313.413.513.914.616.220.1
Adams8.48.48.48.59.811.0
Stringer2.82.83.23.63.8
Myrie2.22.52.83.2
Tilson1.71.71.9
Ramos1.21.2
Blake.4
Bartholomew0.03
Love Prince0.03

In the final round of ranked-choice voting, several demographic trends emerge:

  • Voters under 50 break for Mamdani by a 2:1 margin, while Cuomo leads among those aged 50–59 (63% to 37%) and voters over 60 (56% to 44%).
  • Hispanic voters support Cuomo 60% to 40%, and Black voters favor Cuomo 62% to 38%. Mamdani leads among white voters (61% to 39%) and Asian voters (79% to 21%).
  • Cuomo leads Mamdani among voters without a four-year college degree, 61% to 39%, while Mamdani leads Cuomo among college-educated voters, 62% to 38%.
  • Men support Mamdani 56% to 44%, while women lean toward Cuomo 52% to 48%.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey of New York City Democratic Primary voters was conducted June 18-20, 2025. The sample includes likely voters and those who have already voted early, n=833, with a margin of error of +/-3.3%. The first round of the RCV simulation includes n=800, with a margin of error of +/-3.4 percent. The final round includes n=729, with a MOE of +/-3.6%. The data sets were weighted by 2025 voter modeling, including gender, education, race/ethnicity, age, region, and 2021 vote recall.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95%, a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text and landlines via Interactive Voice Response (phone list provided by Aristotle), along with an online panel of voters provided by CINT. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code; responses that were not matched to a unique NYC voter were removed from the final data set. The survey was offered in English.

All questions asked in this survey, with the exact wording and ordering, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations, can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College/Nexstar Media.

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FULL RESULTS