The final Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill survey of Democratic primary voters in New York’s 10th Congressional District finds attorney Daniel Goldman leading the crowded field with 22%, followed by Assembly Member Yuh Line Niou at 17%; NYC City Councilmember Carlina Rivera and Congressman Mondaire Jones receive 13% respectively. Seventeen percent remain undecided. When undecided voters are asked who they are leaning towards and their support is allocated, Goldman increases his support to 24%, Niou to 18%, Jones to 17%, and Rivera to 15%.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Overall, the response rate in this survey was low, suggesting minimal voter interest in this race, which may keep turnout low. The results in next Tuesday’s primary will likely be determined by which age and racial demographics have the highest turnout. Goldman has a base of support among those over 50 with 31%, whereas voters under 50 are split between Niou at 20%, and Rivera at 17%.”
Kimball continued, “White voters break for Goldman, Hispanic voters break for Rivera, and Asian voters break for Niou.”
The last Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill survey of Democratic Primary voters in the 10th district in May found 78% of voters were undecided, Jones at 7%, Niou at 5% and Rivera at 3%; Goldman had not yet announced his candidacy.
Guns and crime are the most important issue in determining the vote for Congress for a plurality of NY10 voters (23%), while 16% say abortion is the most important isue and 16% the economy. The other issues that follow include homelessness and housing (12%), bipartisan gridlock (5%), public health emergencies like Covid-19 and Monkeypox (5%), and transportation and infrastructure (4%).
Among those who say guns and crime is the most important issue determining their vote for Congress, 26% suport Goldman. For voters whom abortion is their determining issue, voters are split between Rivera (20%), Niou (16%), and Jones (16%).
President Biden holds a 78% approval rating among 10th District Democratic primary voters, while 13% disapprove of the job Biden is doing. Democratic voters lean slightly in favor of Biden running for a second term in 2024; 53% think he should be the nominee and 47% think he should not be.
Conversely, Mayor Adams holds a 29% approval rating among Democratic primary voters in the 10th District, 47% disapprove of the job he is doing and 24% are neutral or have no opinion.
Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, 85% are very (64%) or somewhat (21%) concerned about the Supreme Court overturning its Obergefell v. Hodges decision that decided same-sex marrigae was a constitutional right. Fifteen percent are not too concerned (7.5%) or not at all (7.5%) concerned.
A majority of voters (58%) think recent gun safety legislation passed by Congress will make some difference on the amount of gun violence in the US, 24% think it will make no difference on the amount of gun violence in the US, and 12% think it will make a major difference on the amount of gun violence; 6% are unfamiliar with the legislation.
Regarding a potential congestion pricing plan that would add tolls for drivers who travel south of 60th street in Manhattan, 52% of Democratic voters support the plan, 31% oppose, and 18% are unsure.
The Emerson College Polling survey of the 10th Congressional District in New York was conducted August 10-13, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely Democratic primary voters, n=500, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data set was weighted by race/ethnicity, age, gender and education. Sources include: L2 Turnout Model; U.S. Census Bureau; “John Mollenkopf of the Center for Urban Studies at the City University of New York for race/ethnicity turnout based on voters who have participated in two Democratic primaries in eight years.” It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel.
INTERACTIVE POLL REPORT