Voter Turnout Could be Deciding Factor in Tight Race
The final Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey of New York’s 3rd Congressional District finds 50% of likely voters plan to support Democrat Tom Suozzi, while 47% support Republican Mazi Pilip, and 3% are undecided ahead of the February 13 special election. When including the 3% of undecided voters, Suozzi’s support increases to 52%, and Pilip to 48%, within the poll’s +/- 3.5% margin of error.
Suozzi maintains the three-point margin he held over Pilip in January’s survey of voters, when he led 45% to 42%. Regardless of which candidate they plan to support, a majority of voters (53%) expect Suozzi to win, while 47% expect Pilip to win.
“Which candidate comes out on top next week will depend on turnout,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted. “Early voting favors Suozzi 59% to 41%, while Election Day voters lean towards Pilip 51% to 49%. Additionally, there’s a notable contrast in support between white and Asian voters in NY03: white voters favor Pilip 56% to 45%, whereas Asian voters overwhelmingly support Suozzi with 75% to 25%.”
Suozzi outperforms Pilip among younger voters, with 60% of voters under 30 supporting the former congressman compared to 40% who support Pilip. Conversely, Pilip holds a slight advantage among older voters; 54% of voters over 70 support Pilip, while 46% support Suozzi.
Forty-nine percent of voters hold a favorable view of Tom Suozzi, while 50% have an unfavorable view of him. Forty-seven percent of voters have a favorable view of Pilip, while 47% have an unfavorable view of her. Seven percent are not familiar with Pilip.
NY03 voters were asked which candidate they trust more to do the best job on a series of issues. On the issue of abortion access, 56% trust Suozzi, while 45% trust Pilip. Regarding the war between Ukraine and Russia, 51% trust Suozzi to do the best job, 49% Pilip. On tax policy, 51% trust Pilip, and 49% Suozzi. On the war between Israel and Hamas, 53% trust Pilip, while 47% trust Suozzi. Similarly, on border security and immigration, 53% trust Pilip, and 47% Suozzi.
“Voters favor Pilip on the topic of immigration, which arose as a top issue for Republicans in our recent polling,” Kimball said. “Republicans appear more trusting of their candidate on immigration than Democrats; 84% of Republicans trust Pilip on immigration, compared to 77% of Democrats who trust Suozzi. Independents break toward Pilip on this issue over Suozzi, 63% to 37%.”
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill New York Third District poll was conducted February 4-5, 2024. The sample consisted of 742 “very likely” voters and those who already voted early, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, party, race, and education based on US Census parameters, and New York voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (NY SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of cellphones via MMS-to-web, landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and emails provided by Aristotle.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know that with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. Numbers included in the press release are rounded to the nearest whole number, therefore totals might not always equal 100.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, full results and cross tabulations can be found below.
