Moreno (R) 48%, Brown (D) 45%
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Ohio voters finds that 54% of voters support Donald Trump for president, while 42% support Vice President Kamala Harris. Two percent plan to vote for a third party and 2% are undecided.
The last Emerson College Ohio poll in early September found Trump leading Harris by ten points, 53% to 43%. Since September, Harris’ support decreased by one point and Trump’s support increased by one point.
In the US Senate election, 48% support Republican Bernie Moreno, and 45% support Democrat Sherrod Brown, 6% are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, 52% support Moreno and 48% Brown.
Brown leads in early voting, 52% to 48%, but among those planning to vote in person, Moreno holds an edge, 48% to 43%.
Since the last Ohio poll in September, Brown’s support decreased by two percentage points, and Moreno’s support increased by four points, while the share of undecided voters decreased from 10% to 6%.
“Eight percent of voters are splitting their ticket—2% of Harris voters while 6% of Trump voters are supporting Brown. Meanwhile, Independents are breaking for Moreno, 47% to 42%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Fifty-four percent of Ohio voters have a favorable opinion of former President Trump, while 46% have an unfavorable view of him. Forty-four percent have a favorable view of Harris, while 56% have an unfavorable opinion of the Vice President.
A majority (58%) of Ohio voters disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President, while 33% approve. Thirty-eight percent approve of the job Mike DeWine is doing as Governor, while 34% disapprove.
The economy is the top issue among Ohio voters, at 44%, followed by threats to democracy (13%), immigration (11%), abortion access (7%), housing affordability (7%), and healthcare (6%).
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted October 30-November 2, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=900, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on voter registration and election data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text, landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (both lists provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Nexstar Media.
