A new Emerson College Polling/PIX11 News survey of New York’s 17th congressional district finds a close race between incumbent Republican Mike Lawler and Democrat Cait Conley: 48% support Conley, 46% Lawler, and 7% are undecided.
“In the 2024 Emerson NY-17 poll, 20% of Democrats supported Rep. Lawler, while 4% of Republicans supported the Democrat, Mondaire Jones,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In 2026, Democratic crossover support for Lawler fell eight points to 12%, while Republican support for the Democrat rose six points, to 10%.”
There is an enthusiasm gap among NY-17 voters: those “very excited” to participate in the November election break for Conley by seven points, while those “somewhat excited” break for Lawler by 12 points, 52% to 40%.
Lawler’s favorability is split: 45% have a favorable view of the Congressman and 46% an unfavorable view. Conley has a higher share of neutral voters: 44% have a favorable view of her, 35% unfavorable, and 22% neutral.
Since October 2024, Lawler’s favorability decreased seven points, from 52% to 45%, and his unfavorable rating increased four points, from 42% to 46%.
Voters say the economy is the top issue facing the state at 31%, followed by “threats to democracy” at 23%, immigration at 13%, and housing affordability at 12%.
Since 2024, concern about threats to democracy increased significantly, from 10% to 23%, while concern over immigration decreased from 20% to 13%.
Forty percent approve of the job Governor Kathy Hochul is doing, while 49% disapprove.
“While Governor Hochul is underwater among voters in New York’s 17th district, her approval number has increased significantly since October 2024, from 26% to 40%,” Kimball said.
A majority of voters (52%) in NY17 disapprove of U.S. military action in Iran, while 37% support it, and 11% are unsure.
Democrats oppose military action in Iran 83% to 10%, while Republicans support it 69% to 15%. Independents are split: 44% support and 44% oppose military action in Iran.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/PIX11 News NY-17 survey was conducted September 27-29, 2026. The overall sample of NY17 likely voters, n=400, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/-4.9 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web . Additional panel interviews were provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro.
All respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was administered using QuestionPro, and the survey was offered in English. The poll was sponsored by PIX11.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below. The survey was sponsored by PIX11 News.
