US Senate Race: Scott 48%, Mucarsel-Powell 44%
Ballot Measure to provide right to abortion has 53% support
Ballot Measure to legalize marijuana holds 60% support
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey in Florida finds 52% of voters support former President Donald Trump, and 44% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in 2024. Three percent are undecided and one percent plan to vote for a third-party candidate. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Trump’s overall support increases to 54%, and Harris to 46%.
Since the September Emerson Florida poll, Trump’s support increased two points while Harris dropped one point.
“Female voters in Florida break for Trump, 49% to 47%, making Florida the second competitive state, after Arizona, to find Trump with an edge among women,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Other key groups in Florida such as Hispanic voters, who — like women, broke for Biden in 2020, are split: 48% support Harris and 47% Trump.”
In the U.S. Senate Election, 48% support incumbent Republican Rick Scott, while 44% support Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell; 8% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Scott’s support increases to 53% and Mucarsel-Powell to 47%. Since the September poll, Scott’s support increased by two points, while Mucarsel-Powell’s support decreased by one point.
Regarding the ballot measure to provide a constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability, 53% plan to vote in favor of it, 30% oppose it, and 17% are undecided. Sixty percent of voters support the ballot measure to legalize marijuana, while 34% oppose it. Six percent are undecided.
- The measure to provide a constitutional right to abortion has the support of 82% of Democrats and 55% of independents, while 51% of Republicans oppose it, 29% support, and 20% are unsure.
- The ballot measure to legalize marijuana is supported by 78% of Democrats and 66% of independents, while 51% of Republicans oppose it, and 42% support it.
The economy is the top issue for 35% of voters, followed by housing affordability (15%), immigration (13%), abortion access (11%), threats to democracy (8%), and healthcare (6%).
President Joe Biden holds a 36% job approval rating among Florida voters, while 57% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Governor Ron DeSantis holds a 51% job approval, while 41% disapprove of the job he is doing as governor.
A majority of voters (52%) have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump, while 46% have a favorable view of Harris.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Florida survey was conducted October 18-20, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=860, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on voter registration and election data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text, landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (both lists provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Nexstar Media / Emerson College.
