Trump 58%, Harris 39%
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Montana voters finds 50% of voters support Republican Tim Sheehy and 46% support incumbent Democrat Jon Tester in the election for US Senate. Three percent are undecided, while 2% support third-party candidates. When undecided voters are accounted for, Sheehy’s total support rises to 51%, while Tester’s reaches 48%.
Since the last Emerson poll in Montana in August, Sheehy’s support has increased by two points, while Tester’s support remained at 46%.
With just over a week until Election Day, the incumbent Senator’s support among Montana voters faces a test as Trump appears poised to exceed his 2020 margin of 16.4 percentage points in the state,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Split-ticket voters are crucial for Tester, with about 1 in 10 Trump voters also backing him on the Senate ballot, while virtually no Harris supporters lean toward Sheehy.”
“In addition, the race finds a stark gender divide: women’s break for Tester by about 14 points, 55% to 41%, while men break for Sheehy by 22 points, 59% to 37%,” Kimball added.
Both candidates have identical favorability ratings, with 48% of voters holding favorable views of Tester and Sheehy.
In the presidential election, 58% support former president Donald Trump, 39% support Vice President Kamala Harris, 2% plan to vote third party, and 1% are undecided. Since the August poll, Trump’s support increased three points, from 55% to 58%, and Harris’ support decreased one point.
Thirty-seven percent hold a favorable view of Vice President Harris, while 63% hold an unfavorable view of her. Fifty-seven percent of Montana voters hold a favorable view of Donald Trump, while 43% hold an unfavorable view of him.
Thirty percent of Montana voters approve of the job President Biden is doing in office, while 63% disapprove and 7% are neutral. Montana Governor Greg Gianforte holds a 45% job approval, and 36% disapproval rating. Nineteen percent feel neutral about the job he is doing as governor.
The top issue for Montana voters is the economy, at 40%, followed by housing affordability at 21%. Other issues of concern include threats to democracy (10%), immigration (9%), abortion access (7%), and healthcare (5%).
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Montana survey was conducted October 23-25, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on voter registration and election data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text (list provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was sponsored by Nexstar Media.
