A new Emerson College Polling national survey of US likely voters finds both former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris with 49% support in the 2024 presidential election. One percent plan to support a third-party candidate and one percent are undecided.
“With ten days until Election Day, the national poll finds a divided electorate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In this poll, independents report breaking for Trump 49% to 46% — a reversal from 2020, where they reported voting for Biden by about ten points.”
“Male voters are breaking for Trump by 13 points, 55% to 42%, a larger margin than in 2020, while women break for Harris by ten points, 54% to 44%, underperforming Biden’s support in 2020,” Kimball added.
When asked when they made up their mind for president, 80% have made up their mind over a month ago, 10% in the past month, 7% in the past week, and 4% have not made up their mind yet.
- 62% of voters under 30 made up their mind over a month ago, while 20% made up their mind in the past month, 12% in the past week, and 5% have not made up their mind.
Regardless of whom they will vote for, 50% think Trump will win the election and 49% think Harris will win the election.
Over half of likely voters (53%) disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, while 41% approve.
Half of voters (50%) have a favorable view of Harris and half have an unfavorable view of the Vice President. Forty-nine percent have a favorable view of Trump, while 51% have an unfavorable view of the former president.
The top issue for voters continues to be the economy at 45%, followed by immigration (14%), threats to democracy (14%), abortion access (7%), healthcare (6%), and crime (4%).
A majority of voters think legalizing marijuana nationally is a good idea, while 40% think it is a bad idea.
“Legalizing marijuana is most supported by voters under 30, at 78% who say it is a good idea, and decreases with age, to 36% of voters 70 and over who say the same,” Kimball added.
Voters were asked which presidential candidate they think is more down-to-earth. Half of voters think Harris is more down-to-earth, 43% think Trump is more down-to-earth, and 7% think neither candidate is down-to-earth.
“While women voters break for Harris by about ten, they think she is the more down-to-earth candidate by a 20-point margin, 57% to 37%,” Kimball said. “Men think Trump is more down-to-earth by eight points, 50% to 42%.”
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted October 23-24, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on voter registration and election data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text, landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (both lists provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College.
