Rosen (D) 49%, Brown (R) 45%
A new Emerson College Polling/RealClearWorld poll of likely Nevada voters finds 48% support Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, while 47% support former President Donald Trump. Two percent support a third party, two percent are undecided, and one percent plan to vote for neither candidate. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Harris’ overall support increases to 49%, and Trump’s to 48%.
“Men and women in Nevada break in near opposite directions,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Men break for Trump by nine percentage points, 52% to 43%, while women break for Harris by eight points, 52 to 44%.”
In the 2024 US Senate Election, 49% support incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen, while 45% support Republican Sam Brown. Four percent are undecided.
“Independent voters are nearly evenly split between the two senate candidates – 47% support Rosen, while 46% support Brown,” Kimball said. “Hispanic voters break for Rosen over Brown by 23 points, 58% to 35%, while white voters lean toward Brown, 51% to 44%.”
Half (50%) of Nevada voters view Harris favorably, and half have an unfavorable view of the Vice President. Forty-seven percent view Trump favorably, and 53% view him unfavorably.
The economy is the top issue for 40% of Nevada voters, followed by housing affordability (13%), immigration (12%), threats to democracy (9%), and education (9%).
Half (50%) of union households support Harris in the 2024 election, while 45% support Trump. Non-union voters are split; 48% support Trump, while 47% support Harris.
A majority of voters (54%) disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, while 36% approve. Forty-three percent approve of the job Joe Lombardo is doing as governor, while 26% disapprove.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Nevada survey was conducted October 29-31, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=700, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.6 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text (phone list provided by Aristotle) and an online panel of voters provided by CINT.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by RealClearWorld.
