Casey (D) 47%, McCormick (R) 46%
New Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania polling shows 49% of Keystone State voters support former President Donald Trump, while 48% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in 2024. Three percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, overall, 51% support Trump and 49% support Harris.
“There is a significant age divide among voters: voters under 50 favor Harris, 57% to 39%, while voters over 50 break for Trump, 57% to 41%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Since the last Emerson/RCPA poll in late September, there has been no significant movement, Trump’s support increased a point while Harris stayed at 48%.
A majority of Pennsylvania voters (85%) decided who to support over a month ago, while 7% made up their minds in the past month, 4% in the last week, and another 4% are still undecided.
“Voters who decided over a month ago favor Trump 51% to 47%, while voters who made up their mind within the past month/week lean toward Harris 52% to 45%,” Kimball noted.
In the election for US Senate, 47% support incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, while 46% support Republican David McCormick. Six percent are undecided.
Since the last Emerson/RCPA poll in late September, Casey’s support held at 47% while McCormick’s support increased one point.
Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro has a 48% job approval rating, with 28% disapproving of his performance and 24% remaining neutral. President Joe Biden holds a 37% job approval rating, with 55% disapproving, and 8% neutral.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/RCPA Pennsylvania surveys were conducted October 21-22, 2024. The sample of likely voters in Pennsylvania, n=860, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text (phone list provided by Aristotle) and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by RealClearPennsylvania.
