The final Emerson College Polling Ohio Republican Primary poll, fielded Sunday-Monday before the Tuesday election, finds 38% of likely voters support Bernie Moreno, 29% Matt Dolan, and 12% Frank LaRose. Twenty-one percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Moreno’s overall support increases to 44%, Dolan to 40%, and LaRose to 16%.
Since the most recent Ohio poll fielded earlier this month, Moreno’s support has increased 15 percentage points, Dolan three points, and LaRose has lost four points.
“Moreno’s lead over Dolan, 38% to 29% is accompanied by 21% of undecided voters, who break more for Dolan, tightening the race to within the poll’s margin of error, 44% to 40%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
The top issue for Republican primary voters is the economy at 37%, followed by immigration at 29%, and threats to democracy at 14%.
- Voters who say the economy is the top issue in Ohio break for Moreno with 37%, Dolan 23%, LaRose 15%.
- Voters who say immigration is the top issue: 49% Moreno, 22% Dolan, 7% LaRose.
“There is a significant divide on education in the Ohio primary,” Kimball said. “Dolan leads Moreno among voters with postgraduate degrees, 38% to 24%, while voters whose highest degree is college are more split: 39% support Moreno, 32% Dolan. Voters without a college degree break for Moreno over Dolan, 43% to 24%.”
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Ohio poll was conducted March 17-18, 2024. The sample consisted of 450 likely Republican Primary voters, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.
The data sets were weighted by gender, age, and education based on U.S. Census parameters, and Ohio voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (OH SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR), cell phones via MMS-to-web, and consumer list of emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by Alchemer.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
This survey was conducted and sponsored by Emerson College. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found below.
