A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll in Ohio finds State Senator Matt Dolan is at 26%, while 23% support businessman Bernie Moreno, and 16% support Secretary of State Frank LaRose for the Republican nomination. A plurality of voters (32%) are undecided ahead of the March 19 election.
Since the January Ohio poll, Dolan’s support in the Republican Primary has increased ten points, Moreno by one point, and LaRose has lost five points.
“Overall, Dolan is the third candidate to lead the Republican Primary ballot this year in Emerson polls: LaRose led in November, Moreno surged in January, and now Dolan has voters’ attention,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “The shifting dynamics have left many a significant number of voters undecided with less than a week until election day.”
Voters’ top issue varies by the candidate they support:
- Dolan voters: 47% find the economy to be the top issue, 22% immigration
- Moreno voters: 40% say immigration is the top issue, 37% the economy
- LaRose voters: 35% find the economy to be the top issue and 29% immigration
In potential head-to-head matchups, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads all three possible Republican opponents in a hypothetical 2024 Senate matchup. Brown holds 37% support when matched up with Republican State Senator Matt Dolan, at 34%; 22% are undecided. In a matchup between Brown and businessman Bernie Moreno, 39% support Brown and 34% Moreno; 21% are undecided. Between Brown and Secretary of State Frank LaRose, 39% support Brown and 33% LaRose; 21% are undecided.
“Since the January poll, Brown’s support has remained relatively consistent, while support for the Republican candidates has decreased from 37% to an average of 34%. Brown continues to hold a base of women voters who are 7-10 points more supportive of him than the Republican candidates.”
About 8% of Trump voters plan to split their ticket and vote for Brown, compared to about 2% of Biden voters supporting a Republican candidate.
In the 2024 presidential election, 50% support former President Donald Trump, 41% President Joe Biden, and 9% are undecided. With the candidate undecided voters lean toward included, Trump’s overall support increases to 55%, and Biden’s to 45%.
With third-party candidates on the ballot, 47% support Trump, 38% Biden, 6% Robert Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively. Seven percent are undecided.
President Biden’s age raises doubts for 59% of voters in supporting him in 2024, while 41% say it is not a serious consideration. Former President Donald Trump’s criminal indictments raise concerns for 50%, while 50% say they are not a serious consideration.
Biden holds a 37% job approval in Ohio, and 53% disapproval; 10% are neutral. Governor Mike DeWine holds a 32% job approval, and 34% disapproval; 35% are neutral.
The economy remains the top issue for Ohio voters at 34%, followed by immigration (13%), healthcare (11%), threats to democracy (10%), crime (10%) abortion access (8%), and education (8%).
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Ohio poll was conducted March 7-10, 2024. The sample consisted of 1,300 registered voters, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, party, race, and education based on U.S. Census parameters, and Ohio voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (OH SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR), cell phones via MMS-to-web, and consumer list of emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by Alchemer.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found below.
