The latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Pennsylvania voters finds Mehmet Oz with a two point lead over Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, 48% to 46% in the race for US Senate. Four percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Oz holds 48% and Fetterman increases one point to 47%. Since September, Oz has increased five percentage points and Fetterman has increased one. A majority of Pennsylvania voters (54%) expect Oz to win the election while 47% expect Fetterman to win, regardless of whom they support. 

Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro leads Republican State Senator Doug Mastriano in the gubernatorial election 50% to 41%. Five percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Shapiro’s support increases to 53% and Mastriano to 43%.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “About 9% of those voting for Shapiro for Governor split their ticket and plan to support Oz for Senate. Women voters break for Fetterman by a four-point margin, and for Shapiro by a wider 13-point margin. By contrast, men break for Oz by 10 points, and for Shapiro by three.”

Ninety-three percent of voters have heard, seen, or read, a lot (68%) or a little (25%) about the recent Pennsylvania Senate debate between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz. Seven percent have heard nothing about it. A plurality of voters (44%) say the debate improved their opinion of Mehmet Oz, while 25% say it worsened their opinion of Oz, and 31% say it made no difference. Half of voters (50%) say the debate worsened their opinion of Fetterman, 20% say it improved their opinion of Fetterman, and 31% say it made no difference. 

Kimball noted, “Of those who say they have heard, seen, or read a lot about the debate, Oz leads Fetterman 55% to 41%. Among those who have heard, seen, or read only a little or nothing about the debate, Fettterman leads 56% to 28%.”  

A plurality of voters (47%) say they trust Republican Mehmet Oz more to lower energy prices, while 37% trust Democrat John Fetterman, and 16% trust neither candidate. 

President Biden holds a 39% approval among Pennsylvania voters, while 56% disapprove of the job he is doing. In a hypothetical election between President Biden and former President Trump, voters are split: 44% support Trump and 44% support Biden. Eight percent would support someone else and 4% are undecided. 

The economy is the most important issue for a 51% majority of Pennsylvania voters, followed by “threats to democracy” (14%), and abortion access (9%).


The Emerson College Polling survey of Pennsylvania voters was conducted October 28-31, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an online panel, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.

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